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MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, July 25

MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, July 25

MLB Thrusday Thoughts
By Dave Essler

With all the day games, as usual, best to wait for lineups as many managers rest key players.

Atlanta-Mets: Alex Wood has some impressive numbers. Out of the bullpen. The real key here is how long he can or will be allowed to pitch. Wheeler threw over 100 pitches in both his last two outings, and actually already shut out the Braves this season. I'd look for Atlanta to make the adjustments this time around, but the Braves are one time I am especially concerned about who rests in day games. Lean under, however. With the Braves having the big lead early Wednesday, their pen ought to be rested while New York's may well not.

Pirates-Washington: Gio seems to have his groove back and may well be the Nationals most reliable starter, and if I ever do fade the Pirates it's usually against a LHP. One thing about Burnett's recent successes is that many of those wins were against inferior offenses, and I do like Washington much better against RHP. With Harper resting Wednesday, I do lean Washington here. Bullpens not withstanding.

San Diego-Milwaukee: Which Yovanni do we get. The one that's been stellar lately or the one that's thrown 100+ pitches in three straight games. I like to look at "over" when he's pitching because he can totally suck, but he CAN hit is is a huge asset there. The Padres have fared well against him. And Volquez is going to give up runs.

Miami-Colorado: Eovaldi had thrown about six straight quality starts before getting lit up against the Brewers, and the Rockies have seen just enough of him to think they may well light him up as well. But again, it really does depend on who starts and who sits. Because Nicasio is not your typical Colorado pitcher with terrible numbers at home and Miami hasn't seen much of him, this looks like the Rockies game to lose, and if the wrong people sit the total might be too high.

Phillies-Cardinals: As I type St. Louis is in the midst of a potential big inning, and of course we took the Phillies RL. Cardinals are just one of those teams that I can't get right. Lynn is a pitcher I can't get right. Lynn has, however, done well against the Phillies. Kendrick has been going downhill lately and really would have a tough time trying to take the Phillies in this one.

Cubs at Arizona: Probably would have a tough time taking the Cubs here against a LHP, but, Miley's shown a few cracks lately and a few of the Cubs have hit just enough off of him to give a look to the RL, perhaps. Villaneuva simply not backable as a starter, meaning at the very least we'd have to trust the Cubs bullpen longer than we'd like. However, trusting them for one inning is too many. This could be a higher scoring game.

Reds-Dodgers: I suppose if there was ever a time to fade the Dodgers it might be on a first game back after flying cross country and through customs. Put Latos back in the bigger park and perhaps I might have to break my self imposed ban on the Reds.

Yankees-Rangers: I have never had the respect for Holland that the oddsmakers do, simply because he's not a ground ball pitcher and in a park that might not hold balls in the daytime, I can't take the Rangers. Kuroda's season-long WHIP of 1.04 is something that's worth a NYY RL play at least, IMO.

Detroit at Chicago: I shall pass this game. I won't lay -150 on the road and can't bet on the White Sox right now. Probably under.

Houston-Toronto: Houston is playing some solid ball, and after the grueling series against the Dodgers I have to wonder if Houston RL isn't worth a look here. Buehrle is simply not going to over power the Astros, and I like them far more against a LHP than not. The total's a big one, perhaps too big. I do like that Houston is accustomed to playing in a dome, although the roof may be open, which would make people automatically look at the over. Might be wise to wait and take the under.

Rays-Boston: Hellickson is one of those feast or famine pitchers for me. He beat Boston earlier in the year, but many of the Red Sox regulars have had success against him. Was Lackey's outing against New York the inevitable regression we've been waiting for, or a blip on the screen. The Rays have fared well individually against him, so I can make a reasonable argument for the over, simply because one of these guys should get hit hard. Perhaps over, and best bullpen remaining after Wednesday wins.

Baltimore-Royals: I do like to back pitchers going against their old team (or one of them, lol), but getting behind the Royals is tough lately. Gonzalez has been un-hittable and against some formidable teams, so we'd have to take the Orioles here, and lean under.

Oakland-Los Angeles: A's flying back from Houston where they really didn't play all that well, while the Angels must have been playing a look-ahead series with the Twins. Wilson has been a beast of late, and in the big park here against Straily I can't see this hitting eight runs. But, I might wait and see if it gets to 8 first. I doubt it will. Under is the best play here.

Minnesota-Seattle: How will Seattle rebound from Thursday's bashing at the hands of the Indians, and how much mojo will the Twins bring up from SoCal. Iwakuma has been somewhat hittable lately and the Twins have a score to settle from a shutout Iwakuma threw at them in May. Corriea has kept the Twins in most games this season and has a score to settle for an earlier bad loss against Seattle, so, perhaps the Twins RL. I do like Seattle better against RHP, but when they go into hitting slumps, they REALLY go. Under.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, July 25

Thursday's MLB Matinee Matchups Betting Cheat Sheet

There are six afternoon MLB games on Thursday's schedule. Here's a quick look at each of those matinee matchups:

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (+112, 7.5)

Key pitching stat: A pair of rookie pitchers take the mound in the finale of a four-game series: Alex Wood (0-2, 2.45 ERA) and Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.58).

Key batting stat: Braves SS Andrelton Simmons has homered in back-to-back games and has gone deep four times during a seven-game hitting streak.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 30 percent chance of rain and winds blowing NE at 11 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals (-142, 7.5)

Key pitching stat: Pirates RHP A.J. Burnett is 1-5 over his last 10 starts despite giving up more than three earned runs just once during the stretch.

Key batting stat: Washington OF Jayson Werth hit a two-run homer in Wednesday’s loss and has five homers in the last four games.

Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing NNE at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Pirates are 1-4 in Burnett's last five road starts.

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-136, 8.5)

Key pitching stat: Brewers RHP Yovani Gallardo is 4-2 with a 4.17 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego.

Key batting stat: Padres OF Will Venable is 6-for-13 with a homer against Gallardo.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with clear skies and winds blowing SSW at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (-148, 8.5)

Key pitching stat: The Yankees have scored two runs or fewer in seven of the last 10 starts by Kuroda, who is 1-2 with a 2.60 ERA versus Texas.

Key batting stat: Yankees 2B Robinson Cano is 7-for-21 with seven RBIs against Texas LHP Derek Holland.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 90s with mostly cloudy skies and winds blowing ESE at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 games following a loss.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (+119, 8)

Key pitching stat: Verlander allowed five runs and a season-high 12 hits against the White Sox in a loss three starts back.

Key batting stat: Detroit outscored Chicago 19-7 in the previous three games.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with clear skies and winds blowing SSE at 2 mph.

Key betting note: The Tigers are 24-15 against AL Central opponents and Chicago is 11-21.

Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (-166, 10)

Key pitching stat: Colorado RHP Juan Nicasio is 3-1 in eight home starts this season,

Key batting stat: The Rockies, who average 4.4 runs - third in the NL, have scored only 38 in their last 16 games.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 80s with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing north at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Home team is 25-10 in umpire Brian Knight's last 35 games behind home plate.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, July 25

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays

Game one of a four-game set between Toronto and Houston features a pair of left-handed starters. Blue Birds trot out Mark Buehrle with a 5-7 record, 4.83 ERA. The left-hander allowing 4 runs on 10 hits in a loss during his last home effort is 4-2 w/3.36 ERA in ten starts at Rogers Center during this first season with Toronto (7-3 TSR). Fellow portsider Erik Bedard will start for the Stros, sporting a 3-7 record, 4.41 ERA. The Canada native takes the mound in Toronto off a strong outing striking out 10 in 6 1/3 innings but was tagged with his fourth consecutive loss. Bedard is 1-5 on the road with Stros 4-6 in his 10 highway games. Shifting focus to the teams. Jays are on a 1-9 skid, 5-14 in July including 3-10 at home. Jays are 12-16 vs a left-handed starter on the season, 7-7 as home favorite vs a southpaw. Stros in a 1-7 slump are 4-14 this month including 2-6 away, 10-16 vs a lefty, 4-5 when road underdogs. Other betting nuggets to keep in mind, Jays are 10-4 as home favorite opening a series, Stros are 1-6 in the first game of a road series off a home stand. The early betting market has Toronto anywhere from $1.85 to $2.10 home favorite with the run total set at 9.5.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, July 25

Yankees at Rangers: Preview & Pick

Baseball betting is a hot commodity at this time of year, but it may not be as hot as the searing heat of Texas this afternoon as the Texas Rangers conclude both a four game series and seven-game homestand with an afternoon clash against the New York Yankees.

According to the current betting odds at Bovada, the Rangers are -150 home favorites for the game that will see a high of 98 degrees, with the run total set at 8.5. In each of the previous three contests, the two teams have seen the number finish below the listed run total.

Lefthander Derek Holland gets the start for the Rangers, bringing an 8-5 record with a 3.10 ERA to the hill. In his last outing, Holland was the victim of poor run support in a 3-1 loss to the Baltimore Orioles.

In his five starts during the day this year, Holland has just a 1-3 mark, but an ERA of 2.68, with four of those starts coming Under the run total. Narrowing the focus a bit, Holland has started four home day games since the start of last year—all of them ending below the number.

The Yankees will counter with righthander Hiroki Kuroda, who has a 9-6 record with a 2.65 ERA this year. Kuroda allowed just two runs in seven innings in his last effort last Saturday at Boston to win his second straight game.

Kuroda has thrived during the daylight hours in 2013, going 4-0 with an ERA of 2.20. From a baseball betting perspective, the Under has cashed six of seven times this year, with both of his road starts during the day against a southpaw also going Under.

Both teams seem have a knack for keeping scores low when playing during the day. The Rangers are 11-3 in favor of the Under during the team’s 2013 home day games, while the Yankees, have seen 16 of the 22 games in which it has faced a portsider finish Under since 2010.

Taking into account all of major league baseball, the Under is 35-19-2 when a southpaw makes a home start during the day. More recently, the last 15 times a lefthander has started a home day game, the Under is 9-4-2.

When looking at today’s run total of 8.5, it should be noted that since July 8, day games with a total above 8 have seen the Under be the right call in 15 of 21 games.

Both teams are currently in the thick of the pennant race and have quality starters pitted against each other. Combining that with all the data above makes the free MLB pick an easy one

Play Texas-New York Yankees Under 8.5

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, July 25

Thursday's Night Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Astros at Blue Jays

Probables: E. Bedard (3-7, 4.41 ERA) vs. M. Buehrle (5-7, 4.83 ERA)

Previous series recap: Houston played Oakland tough, but lost two of three at home, with all three games decided by one run each. Toronto threw away two late leads against a hot Dodgers' squad, as Los Angeles pulled off the three-game sweep at Rogers Center.

Current streaks: The Astros have lost seven of their past eight games, while winning just once since the All-Star break. Houston owns a 2-8 record on the road against AL East opponents this season, but both victories came in the series opener. Toronto is winless since the break with all six defeats coming at home. The Jays have drilled the 'over' in seven of their past nine contests, while allowing at least seven runs six times in this stretch.

Rays at Red Sox

Probables: J. Hellickson (9-3, 4.62 ERA) vs. J. Lackey (7-7, 2.95 ERA)

Series recap: Tampa Bay received another terrific pitching performance on Wednesday as David Price shut down the Red Sox in a 5-1 triumph. The Rays have taken two of three in the series so far, as all three contests have finished 'under' the total.

Current streaks: The Rays are on fire with victories in 19 of their past 22 games, while hitting the 'under' in five straight. The Red Sox have alternated wins and losses in seven consecutive games, while posting an 8-1 mark to the 'under' in the last nine overall.

Phillies at Cardinals

Probables: K. Kendrick (9-6, 3.94 ERA) vs. L. Lynn (11-5, 4.13 ERA)

Series recap: St. Louis dominated Philadelphia for the second straight night, 11-3 to cash as $1.65 home favorites. The Cardinals have taken four of six meetings with the Phillies this season, while drilling the 'over' for the first time in four games.

Current streaks: The Phillies have dropped four straight games, while falling to 5-7 the last 12 opportunities as a road underdog. St. Louis has cleaned up against a weak schedule of late by winning 11 of 14 games, including nine of the last 10 at Busch Stadium.

Orioles at Royals

Probables: M. Gonzalez (8-3, 3.34 ERA) vs. J. Guthrie (9-7, 4.41 ERA)

Series recap: The Royals rallied from a late 3-1 deficit to score three runs in the final two innings to shock the Orioles, 4-3 on Wednesday. After dropping the series opener, Kansas City has taken two straight from Baltimore by one run each, while cashing the 'under' the last two nights.

Current streaks: Baltimore has lost three consecutive road games just twice this season, while dropping to 1-5 the last six contests decided by one run. The Royals have won four of six since the All-Star break, while going 7-4 the last 11 home games against four above .500 teams (Orioles, Tigers, Athletics, and Indians).

Cubs at Diamondbacks

Probables: C. Villanueva (2-6, 4.16 ERA) vs. W. Miley (6-8, 4.03 ERA)

Series recap: Chicago staved off Arizona in 12 innings, 7-6 on Wednesday to cash as $1.20 road underdogs. The Cubs have taken two of three so far in this series, while the season set is evened up at 3-3.

Current streaks: The Cubs are 0-5 the last five games off a win, while going for consecutive road victories for the first time since late June. The Diamondbacks are in the midst of a 2-5 slump, while posting a 4-6 mark the last 10 in the role of a home favorite.

Angels at Athletics

Probables: C.J. Wilson (10-6, 3.15 ERA) vs. D. Straily (6-3, 4.14 ERA)

Previous series recap: Los Angeles avoided a home sweep against Minnesota by squeezing past the Twins, 1-0 as heavy favorites on Wednesday. Oakland grabbed two of three from Houston on the highway, improving to 11-1 against the Astros this season.

Current streaks: Both of these teams are riding crazy 'under' runs (L.A. 7-1, Oakland 9-1), including three 'unders' in their previous series last weekend in Anaheim. The Angels have won just three of their past nine games, which includes a 1-4 record on the highway. Oakland has split six games since the break, but the A's are 9-2 the last 11 home series openers.

Reds at Dodgers

Probables: M. Latos (9-3, 3.53 ERA) vs. Z. Greinke (8-2, 3.36 ERA)

Previous series recap: Cincinnati grabbed three of four at San Francisco with all three victories coming by at least five runs. The Dodgers return home after a 6-0 road swing, including a three-game sweep at Toronto.

Current streaks: The Reds are picking up the pace recently with wins in seven of their past 10 contests. The Dodgers' offense put up at least eight runs in each of the last four victories on the East Coast, while owning a solid 6-1 record the last seven home series openers.

Twins at Mariners

Probables: K. Correia (7-6, 4.17 ERA) vs. H. Iwakuma (9-4, 2.99 ERA)

Previous series recap: Minnesota couldn't quite finish off the sweep at Los Angeles, but the Twins managed to take two of three from the Halos. The Mariners saw their eight-game winning streak snapped in a blowout loss to the Indians on Wednesday, but Seattle did grab its third straight series victory.

Current streaks: Seattle has won seven consecutive series openers, which includes four in a row at Safeco Field. Minnesota has rebounded from a six-game skid in mid-July to win six of its previous eight games, all in the underdog role.

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