Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers -113FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers are showing exceptional value at home tonight. LA has won six straight and 23 of their last 28 overall. They appear to have a decisive edge on the mound with Zach Greinke going up against the struggling Mat Latos. Greinke is a perfect 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA at Dodgers Stadium this season and 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA over his last six outings against the Reds. Latos has a 7.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP over his last three starts and has not won a single of his five career starts at Dodgers Stadium.
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The Dodgers are an impressive 12-3 in Greinke's 15 starts this season (7-0 at home). Not to mention, Greinke is 14-5 over his last 19 starts with a money line of +125 to -125, 14-2 over his last 16 with a total set at 7 or less and a ridiculous 33-3 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher, 21-1 as home favorite after his team won the previous game and 10-1 in his last 11 night games.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orioles/Royals Under 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I look for a low-scoring, pitcher's duel tonight between the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals. Both starting pitchers tonight are underrated and not getting the respect they deserve with this total set.
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Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez has been dominant this season, going 8-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 17 starts. He has been at his best on the road, going 3-3 with a 2.93 ERA in nine starts. Gonzalez is also 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts, allowing exactly one earned run in each.
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Jeremy Guthrie has gone 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA over 20 starts this season. Guthrie faced the Orioles on May 9 of this year, allowing one earned run over six innings of a 6-2 Kansas City victory. Gonzalez has one career start against the Royals, giving up just one earned run over eight innings of a 7-1 Baltimore triumph.
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The UNDER is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Orioles last 12 road games. The UNDER is 14-3 in Royals last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 15-5-2 in Guthrie's last 22 starts as an underdog. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Jason SharpeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore -135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Baltimore Orioles have bashed right-handed pitching this season with a batting average almost 30 points higher against them than when versus a lefty. The powerful O's lineup will get to feast here on Jeremy Guthrie in this one. Guthrie hasn't been very good this season, but he's been even worse of late with an ERA of 5.54 in his last four starts. If you throw out his first six starts of the year, Guthrie has an awful 5.38 ERA since then. Not a big fan of this Royals team. Kansas City is built more like a National League team as it's hit the fewest home runs in the American League this season -- and by a wide margin also as they are 26 dingers behind the next closest team overall. The Baltimore Orioles are a powerful offensive squad as they lead the majors in the long ball with 136 overall on the year. Many folks will point to the Orioles small home ballpark as the reason for this, but that's not the case at all as the O's have also hit the most road home runs in MLB this season with 68. The key to Baltimore going far this season lies in their inconsistent starting pitcher, but the one guy who has been the steadiest of the group will start here in this one, Miguel Gonzalez. With eight straight quality starts to his credit, Gonzalez has been a huge savior so far for an O's team that has won seven of his last nine starts. Gonzalez has an ERA of just above 2.00 in all of his starts since June and remains a guy flying way under the betting markets' radar. The Orioles are just too strong. Take Baltimore here in this game.

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San Diego at MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Milwaukee -130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The San Diego Padres made a nice run in the NL West when they went on a 16-8 tear. The problem is that they have been just 7-21 since then. Outside of the 16-8 run, this team stands in at just 29-49 in all other games. There have been a lot of inquiries made as to the availability of Yovani Gallardo, but the Brewers insist he is unavailable. Gallardo is 68-46 over the last five seasons. Edinson Volquez has been a huge disappointment with a 7-8 record and an ERA not far from 6. He has not had success when facing the Brew Crew where his 11 career starts show an ERA of 5.05. San Diego is just 3-12 in their last 15 road games. Milwaukee owns a crisp 48-18 mark in Gallardo's last 66 starts as a home favorite. Milwaukee is also 5-1 in Gallardo's last six starts against the Padres. Play this one on Milwaukee.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Ian CameronFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Edmonton at MontrealFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: EdmontonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these teams are struggling at 1-3 and neither has impressed me much. However, Montreal truly has no business being favored by this margin against anyone right now – especially with a 0-2 SU and ATS mark on their home field.
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Montreal has played two good quarters of football in four games season. That is about it. Their offense has been largely non-existent except for last week’s first quarter 24 point outburst as head coach Dan Hawkins has proven he has no clue how to run an efficient offense in this league. Montreal’s offensive line remains a problem area as they continue to have trouble protecting their Anthony Calvillo and have been mediocre at best in run blocking. And things have gotten worse since the season ending injury to the team’s best and most experienced offensive lineman Scott Flory who is a 15-year CFL veteran. The defense which had been the only thing keeping Montreal to stay in games finally succumbed last week and got blitzed for 38 points by Calgary who had their backup quarterback Kevin Glenn starting in place of an injured Drew Tate. The Alouettes may also be suffering a mental hangover from blowing a 24-0 first quarter lead. It’s a short turn around for Montreal playing Edmonton just five days after that monumental collapse and I’m not sure they can get up off the mat.
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Edmonton has had as many struggles as Montreal has but the Eskimos are the ones catching points here, not the ones laying them. Edmonton has at least shown they are capable of going on the road and winning when they went into Guelph and defeated the Hamilton Tiger-Cats 30-20 in Week 2 as 7-point road underdogs. They faced Saskatchewan and BC in their other three games who are hands down the best two teams in the CFL right now so Edmonton should enjoy facing Montreal tonight which is a major step down in class. Offensively Edmonton has done well running the football despite struggles from quarterback Mike Reilly in the passing game. They’re facing a Montreal defense that has allowed more than 100 yards per game. I expect Edmonton to have success running the football with Hugh Charles and that should keep Mike Reilly out of 2nd and long situations and allow him to be more effective throwing the football.
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It’s worth noting that Edmonton nearly beat a much better Montreal team last season on this field – a 27-25 loss but they got the ATS win as 5-point road underdogs. A similar result here cashes our ticket but I wouldn’t be surprised if Edmonton finds a way to pull off the outright win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Jeff Benton

Your Thursday freebie is the Over in the Tigers-White Sox game.

Normally one would look for the Under to be the way to go with Justin Verlander and Jake Peavy starting, but that has not been the case for Verlander, as the Cy Young winner has had his issues this year, sporting a season ERA of 3.69, and he has allowed 10 runs and 21 hits his last 19-plus innings of work.

The Over has gone 4-2 the last 6 times he has started, and is 13-7 for the season in his 20 trips to the mound.

Jake Peavy is back after being sidelined for over a month, and while he pitched decent in his first start back, the Over is 5-2-1 the last 8 times the veteran righty has started.

Last night's 6-2 final fell just shy of going Over, but the Over is still 6-2-1 the past 9 times these division-rivals have played. Go Over the total one more time on Thursday.

2♦ DETROIT-WHITE SOX OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Brad Wilton

Tampa Bay for free last night makes it 3 in a row with my comp play releases!

Thursday's comp play goes early, as I play Under the total in the Yankees-Rangers series finale from Arlington.

Both teams will hit the road after this one, and you know damn well they do not want to be out in the July heat in Texas any longer than they have to be. The Under is now 6-2-1 the last 9 times these teams have tangled after last night's 3-1 final, and today's pitchers have been pretty darn tough on the hitters lately.

Hiroki Kuroda has allowed 2 runs or less in 3 straight starts, and 6 of his last 7 overall. The Under is 14-4 when he starts, and his ERA over his last 3 starts stands at 0.96!

Derek Holland is not far behind, as the Under is 5-2-1 the past 8 times Holland has made the start. Holland's ERA during the daylight stands at 2.68, so do not expect the soft-hitting Yanks to muster too much of an attack in this one.

Have to believe we are looking at an Under to conclude this long 4 game set on Thursday afternoon.

5♦ N.Y. YANKEES-TEXAS UNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Brett Atkins

My free winner for tonight is going to be on the Houston Astros plus all that money up in Toronto, where yes, I like the cellar dwellers to shock the Blue Jays. Seriously, why not? Toronto hasn't lived up to preseason expectations and the American League East looks the same, with Boston and the New York Yankees dominating. And the 'Stros just gave the Athletics one helluva series.

I'm not convinced Mark Buehrle is at his best these days, so you can't really believe he's going to dominate Houston's bleak lineup.

Though he comes in after recording his 11th quality start of the season last Saturday against the Rays, he also strolled off the mound with his seventh loss of the season. He was battered in the first three innings and never stood a chance. He has an ERA of 4.83 and I don't trust him.

Finally, I am going to insist you list Houston starter Erik Bedard, despite a terrible record and ERA on the year, as he's a Canadian-native, and something tells me he's going to pitch with pride in this one. He takes the mound tonight after a rather strong outing on Saturday, when in which he struck out 10 over 6-1/3 hitless innings Saturday.

And if all that doesn't get you to believe the left-hander will be fired up, he's the second Astros pitcher in history to be pulled with a no-hitter in at least the seventh. Something tells me he's going to be hungry to go longer.

Take the Astros, and list Bedard ONLY in this one.

4♦ HOUSTON

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Chris Jordan

Third straight day my complimentary winner is in the Pittsburgh-Washington series, and today in this matinee I want you playing the Nationals with Gio Gonzalez over the Pirates. Do not worry about listing A.J. Burnett, I only want you listing Gonzalez.

See, the Nationals left-hander is the last hope in this series, and maybe the campaign as the Pirates have come to town proving they're no fluke this season. To avoid the sweep, the Nationals turn to the one person who may have been the most consistent hurler this season.

Gonzalez is in after allowing just four hits while tying a career high with 11 strikeouts over six scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Unfortunately for Gio, the offense couldn't give him enough run support once again, and he came away with a no-decision. He's still 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA this year, and lifetime versus the Bucs is 2-0 with a 2.84.

Great spot to look at the Nats. List Gonzalez, and play the home team.

2♦ WASHINGTON

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Scott Delaney

On the heels of nailing the St. Louis Cardinals on the Run Line as my comp winner last night, I'm going with the Oakland Athletics tonight, over their rivals, the Angels, who arrive to town for a crucial four-game weekend set.

I'm not going to worry about listing either C.J. Wilson or Dan Straily, cause quite frankly, it's not worth the risk of having no action when the play clearly is on the teams.

What we have is a battle of division rivals at O.co Coliseum in a showdown of two anemic offenses. The biggest question tonight will be which offense I think has the capability of a breakout game, and my money is on the Athletics getting it done.

See, while the A's are hitting a bleak .203 while averaging 2.6 runs over their last 12 games, the Halos arrive in Oaktown having been limited to just four runs or fewer in a season-high nine straight games. During that span the Angels are averaging merely 2.1 runs per contest.

With this series in Oakland, it's a mere matter of time before the A's heat up offensively, especially knowing the Angels have lost 11 of their last 15 matchups in Oakland.

3♦ OAKLAND

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Blade wrote:

Rocketman

NY Yankees @ Texas
Play: NY Yankees

The NY Yankees travel to Texas to take on the Rangers on Thursday afternoon. The Yankees are 98-51 the past 3 years when playing in day games. Texas is scoring only 3 runs per game their past seven games overall and only 3.7 runs per game in day games this season. Hiroki Kuroda takes the mound for the Yankees where he has been solid this year. Kuroda is 9-6 with a 2.65 ERA overall this year, has a 3.53 ERA on the road this season and 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA his last 3 starts. Derek Holland toes the rubber for Texas where he has pitched well this year but has lacked run support at home with only a 2-4 record this season. Kuroda has a 2.60 ERA in his four starts vs Texas in his career. Holland is 1-5 with a 7.03 ERA in his eight starts vs the Yankees in his career. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Yankees today!

Rocketmansports

57% lifetime with free plays (17 years)]
12-3 or 80% win rate for last 15 free plays

Take NY Yankees +143 in MLB For Thursday's play.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 25

Bob Balfe

Tampa Bay +115

Is there any other team in baseball as good as Tampa right now? Their pitchers have all been feeding off each other and you just get the feel that they are in playoff mode already. Boston has gone a few games in this stretch where they have produced little offense. Not a good thing against a hot team like Tampa. Take the Rays

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