Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

John Ryan

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Prediction: New York Yankees

The simulator shows a high probability that the Yankees will rebound from their series loss to the Red Sox and win this game. The Yankees are nearing that point of must-win if they are going to be buyers in the days ahead of the July 31 trading deadline. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 104-89 mark for 54% winners, but has made a whopping 61 units/unit wagered since 2007 averaging a +147 DOG play. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY YANKEES) that are struggling AL offensive team scoring <=4.5 runs/game and is now facing a team with a good bullpen sporting an ERA<=3.75 and after a loss by 2 runs or less. Darvish was roughed up by the Astros in his last start before the All-Star break and I don't believe he will be in dominating form tonight either. Nova finished strong for the Yankees posting a 2.28 ERA with a 0.887 WHIP in his last three starts. Although the playoffs look bleak right now, a win tonight will keep the Yankee fans and Brian Cashman hoping for a miracle run. Take the Yankees.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Rocketman Sports

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Baltimore Orioles -112

The Baltimore Orioles travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Monday night. Kansas City is 250-366 last 616 games at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Baltimore has won 4 in a row heading into tonight including a weekend sweep in Texas. Baltimore is allowing only 3.4 runs per game their past seven games overall. Kansas City is scoring only 2.7 runs per game their past seven games overall. Scott Feldman has pitched well for Baltimore this year as he is 8-7 with a 3.86 ERA overall. Wade Davis has struggled this year at 4-8 with a 5.89 ERA overall, 1-4 with a 4.44 ERA at home and 0-3 with an 11.77 ERA his last 3 starts. Feldman is 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA in all his starts vs Kansas City in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Baltimore tonight!

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Steve Merril

Chicago vs. Arizona
Play: Under 8

The Diamondbacks host the Cubs for the first of a 4-game series beginning on Monday night. They will have to contend with Matt Garza who is auditioning for new teams. Garza is 6-1 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 11 starts. He has allowed just 4 earned runs in his last three starts. The righty beat Arizona back in May in Chicago after giving up just 2 runs and six hits in seven innings. Paul Goldschmidt (0-6), Jason Kubel (1-8), Cliff Pennington (1-6) and Cody Ross (1-12) all have had their problems with Garza. Arizona’s offense has scored just 26 runs in their last 10 games while going Under the total in seven of those games.

Tyler Skaggs is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in four home starts for Arizona. He has allowed just 8 runs in 23.3 innings pitched at home. The southpaw is facing a Chicago team that is hitting just .234 against left-handed starters this season. Chicago has gone Under in 15 of their 28 games against lefties. The Arizona bullpen is 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this season. These two teams have played 6 Unders in their last 10 meetings in Arizona, and we expect another low-scoring game between the Cubs and Diamondbacks on Monday night.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Steve Janus

Chicago Cubs +126

I've had a lot of success backing Chicago Matt Garza of late, as I really feel he's pitching his heart out to get traded to a contender before the July 31 deadline. Garza has a 1.66 ERA and 1.108 WHIP over his last three starts and has allowed a total of six earned runs over his last six starts combined. Not to mention he's 3-0 with a 2.23 ERA over seven road starts and 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA over four career starts vs Arizona, includes a 7-2 Cubs win over the Diamondbacks on May 31.

Arizona's Tyler Skaggs has a lot of potential, but he's still extremely raw. To no surprise he's had a mixed bag of results. In two of his starts he hasn't allowed a single earned run, but in the other three he's given up 13 runs on 22 hits in just 15 innings of work. He faces a Chicago offense that has been swinging the bats well despite not scoring a lot of runs. The Cubs are hitting .263 over their last seven games and have a pretty impressive 49 hits over their last five games (at least 8 in each game). I'll gladly take my chances on the Cubs providing Garza just enough run-supper to get the victory here as a decent priced underdog.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles +108 over TORONTOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Blue Jays didn’t get any favors after the break by having to play the AL’s hottest team, the Tampa Bay Rays, who have won 20 of their past 24 ball games. Things don’t get any easier here with the Dodgers, the NL’s hottest team, who have won 21 of their past 26 games. In terms of frame of mind, give a big edge to the Dodgers, who are coming off a three-game sweep in Washington against three very tough starters in Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman. L.A. takes a big step down in class here in facing Josh Johnson. A normalized hit% and strand% are all it took for Johnson to go from elite to mediocre, though lingering effects of a shoulder injury may explain lost velocity. Johnson has started just 12 games this season and has one win and five quality starts. The Jays have lost Johnson’s last four starts and over his last five games he has a disturbing groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/30%/33%. Pay close attention to Johnson’s 30% line-drive rate because there isn’t a pitcher in baseball that can have success with a rate that high. It’s also worth noting that these Dodgers have had plenty of success against Johnson when he was a member of the Marlins. Current Dodgers have 34 hits in 92 career AB’s versus Johnson for a BA of .370, an OBP of .416 and a sick OPS of 1.003.  That’s when he was good. 
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
In 18 starts, Hyun-jin Ryu has 14 pure quality one’s. He has a 51% groundball rate and a line-drive rate of 14%. Those are both elite numbers. Ryu just keeps going out there every five days and he gives the Dodgers a great chance of winning. xERA loves his strike-throwing ability and batted ball profile. Ryu has been as consistent as any pitcher in the game and that’s pretty impressive when you consider that he’s the first pitcher to make the jump directly from the Korean League to MLB. The Blue Birds are hitting just .248 against southpaws this season and they’ve never seen Ryu before. Wrong side favored.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pittsburgh +124 over WASHINGTONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Nationals rarely win when Dan Haren starts. The last time Washington won a game that Haren started was way back on May 9, 11 starts ago when he beat the Tigers, 5-4. Since then, the Nationals have lost his last 10 starts with Haren going 0-7 over that span. Haren has become a big health risk given his cranky shoulder and bad back. His poor surface stats (5.61 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) have made him a big performance risk too. Haren has a fly-ball bias profile, a .299 BAA and 15% of the fly-balls hit off him have left the yard. The Nats continue to underachieve and every time they take a step forward they subsequently take two steps backwards.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Charlie Morton has been a pleasant surprise for the Pirates since joining the rotation. He's moved his dominance rate up, which pairs nicely with a very impressive 60% groundball rate. More groundballs is a recipe for success when you are pitching for the Pirates, who are innovators in the liberal use of infield shifts. Charlie Morton was never a big-K guy in the majors but he's been able to maintain a decent strikeout rate (and a 3.63 xERA) in his post-Tommy-John season. Morton is getting better with each start and his results are fully supported by his skills. Morton is high on our radar as a pitcher with great profit potential and we’ll gladly step in on him and the Pirates here.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Cincinnati +113 over SAN FRANCISCOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
One of the most profitable angles in all of sports has been to wager against a pitcher coming off a no-hitter. We cashed in on that angle betting against Homer Bailey earlier this month and will look to do the same here. A no-hitter is rare. The focus it takes intensifies with each passing inning and then with each passing out after the sixth inning. What follows is a celebration, interviews, tons of accolades and a real sense of accomplishment. To come out for your next start is completely anti-climactic, not to mention a serious letdown. And it’s not like Lincecum is having a great year. In 19 starts, only eight have been of the pure quality variety. Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2013 among NL starters. It's a problem that has made him extremely hittable and it's one that is exacerbated by his gradual loss of fastball velocity. He had a 94 mph average fastball velocity early in his career. Now it barely cracks 90 mph. Lincecum has a pedestrian 4.12 ERA at home this year in the majors best pitcher’s park and it’s likely that he runs into some serious trouble today.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
After a disastrous 2011, the 35-year-old Bronson Arroyo came to camp in “the best shape of my life" and had his best skills season since 2004. Improved command and on base average were keys. Arroyo has carried that over to this season. Not only are his surface stats (3.42 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) good again, so too are his base skills. One explanation for Arroyo's resurgence could be his pitch mix. He is using his 87 mph fastball significantly less and is throwing more sliders and curveballs in its place. Another is his dominance with the bases empty. Arroyo has posted strong numbers both above and below the surface. It’s even more impressive when you consider that he pitches half his games at Great American Ballpark. Arroyo is a crafty lefty that is on a two-year good run and against this struggling line-up at this park, he’s very likely to thrive again. The Reds may very well be the best value on today’s card.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Greg Shaker

Pittsburgh +129

Exactly how is David Haren a favorite tonight over one of the Best Teams in the National League? The Nats have won just 4 times in his 14 starts including most recently 1-10 when he takes the Hill. The Nationals have won just once in their last 6 efforts and offense is clearly the biggest reason why, as they are scoring about 2.3 RPG Over their last 10 played. The Pirates give the ball to Charlie Morton tonight and he has been a big surprise for them. I frankly think he has some imploding to do before it's all over this year but most likely he will have success tonight throwing at the Nats Bats. The Pitt Bullpen remains very solid with an ERA near 1 Over their last 10 games. The Pirates have not been afraid of the road this year either. High humidity tonight means that Fly Balls might go further than usual and Haren is one that throws a lot of those. Morton is just the OPPOSITE with a very high ground ball rate this year. Sometimes I just don't get it with what these Oddsmakers are doing and this one is that. I'm going to play the Bucs & at a very nice number.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Wunderdog

Cleveland at Seattle
Pick: Seattle -105

Don't look now, but the Seattle Mariners have rattled off six straight wins. The pitching is strong, but the issue this season with Seattle has been the quiet bats, but that has changed as the offense has caught fire. In their last 10 games, Seattle has averaged 7.4 runs per game, including cracking double-digits three times. This comes on the heels of having done so just one time prior all season long. Cleveland has had issues on the road where they are just 22-27 on the season, while the M's enter a respectable .500 at home. They have certainly had issues on the road behind Ubaldo Jimenez, where they are a woeful 8-20 in his last 28 road starts as a dog. The M's are working magic at home where they are a crisp 29-9 in their last 38 vs. a team with a losing road record, and the Tribe has mustered just a single win in their last five here. Play on Seattle.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Larry Ness

Cleveland vs. Seattle
Pick: Cleveland

The Mariners own MLB’s longest active winning streak at SIX in a row, after completing a three-game sweep in Houston against the Astros with Sunday’s 12-5 victory. Seattle has hit 11 HRs and outscored their opponents 44-20 during the team's longest winning streak since posting eight consecutive victories from August 14-22 of last year. As for the Indians, they dropped  two of three games at Minnesota this past weekend but didn’t lose any ground in the AL Central, as the Tigers also lost two of three Friday-Sunday at Kansas city (Cleveland trails Detroit by just 1 1/2 games).

The Mariners have a much tougher ‘climb’ in the AL West, as Seattle’s winning streak has them at 46-52 but that’s good enough for just fourth-place, 11 games back of the A’s and eight back of the Rangers. Cleveland swept a four-game home series from the Mariners back in May (17-20) but may be choosing the wrong time to visit Seattle, as the Mariners are red-hot. Then again, maybe not? Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound and while he’s NOT the same pitcher who went in 19-8 (2.88 ERA) for the Rockies in 2010, this is the best he’s pitched since joining the Indians in 2011 in a trade deadline deal.

Jimenez is 7-4, with a 4.56 ERA, with the Indians going 13-6 in starts. His moneyline record of plus-$972, ranks 5th among all starters. Let me also note that he’s been much more effective away from home, going 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 road starts (Indians are 7-3), compared to just 3-3 at home, where his ERA is  6.09 in nine starts (Indians are 6-3).

Aaron Harang gets the nod for Seattle and he’s had a poor season. Harang enters 4-8 with a 5.38 ERA in 15 starts, in which Seattle is just 5-10. Harang is 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 10 career starts against the Indians but he hasn't faced them since 2010 when he was with Cincinnati, so I’m filing that under “old news.” Seattle’s win streak end s tonight.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Dave Price

Chicago Cubs +126

The Cubs are showing value at this price given the advantage they have on the mound with Garza. The veteran right-hander is 6-1 with an ERA of 3.17 in 11 starts. He's done some of his best work on the road where he's 3-0 with a 2.23 ERA in seven outings. Garza has especially sizzled of late, going 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA over his last five starts. The Cubs are 4-0 in his last four starts as an underdog. Arizona's Tyler Skaggs has an ERA of 4.03 in five starts, and the D-backs are 3-7 in his last 10 starts dating back to last season. Take the Cubs.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Jeff Alexander

Oakland Athletics -155

Oakland gets the call as Monday's free play as it is 9-0 against Houston this season. Looking back further, the Athletics are 11-0 in the last 11 meetings and 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Houston. Two of this season's wins against the Astros have come with Tom Milone on the mound. The A's are 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Oakland crushed Houston scheduled starter Dallas Keuchel earlier this season, touching him for 6 runs in a 6-2 win, and I expect them to do it again. Bet the A's.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Teddy Covers   

Cleveland at Seattle
Play: Seattle

The single longest current winning streak in major league baseball belongs to the under-the-radar Seattle Mariners, a massive source of profits for their supporters.  Seattle’s bats are hitting better right now than they have all season, by a fairly wide margin.  They’ve scored 11, 8, 4, 7, 8, 6, 4, 10 4 and 12 runs in their last ten games.  In fact, the Mariners have scored four runs or more in 16 of their last 17 and 20 of their last 23 ballgames while averaging well over five runs per game during that span! 

Yet despite the Mariners’ offensive explosion, their 11-5 record in their last 16 ballgames and their winning record overall at home since losing their first two series back in April, we’re still seeing very little support in the betting markets for this squad.  How else can we explain the pick ‘em price to support Seattle at home this evening against an Indians squad that spent the weekend getting shut down by the likes of Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia in Minnesota over the weekend?

Ubaldo Jiminez hasn’t recorded a single out in the seventh inning since June 1st, struggling with high pitch counts and consistent control issues.  Meanwhile, Aaron Harang has pitched three 8+ inning gems in his last six tries on this field; including a pair of complete game shutouts.  Bottom line?  This Mariners team is an under-the-radar moneymaker right now; worthy of support once again tonight.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Dave Essler

NY Yankees +1.5 -115

Yes, I do know the Yankees played late last night. However, the Rangers are hitting .233 the last three games since the break, and that's at home. Darvish coming off a long rest cannot be a great thing, nor can the heat in Arlington. Nova looked decent in his last two starts, and kept the ball down. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs since April and pre-DL time, and has done very well against both Beltre and Cruz. Just way too much working in favor of this being a lower scoring game, in spite of the heat, and this is a Texas team that's really starting to miss Hamilton as a LHH in the middle of that order. Texas has lost four straight now, and seven of the last ten. Yes, they could explode anytime, but the Yankees at this price is just too much. I thought I'd lean the other way after the travel, but they;re big boys and actually COULD have some momentum, coming back from down 7-3 to Boston last night.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Bob Balfe

Cincinnati Reds +120

Tim Lincecum is coming off his best game ever as he threw a no hitter. I love watching this guy, but in reality I just don't see his body being able to hold up season after season. He really is no more than 160 pounds which just makes it even more amazing that he has the talented arm that he does. The Giants struggle to score runs and the Reds have owned them this year. Everyone loves taking the pitcher who just threw a no hitter the very next game so Vegas knows what they are doing by making the Giants small favorites. The money will be all over them tonight. Cincinnati has a better lineup and Arroyo has been great in his own right this year. Take the Reds.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213230 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44796
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
280354
Average Posts Per Hour:
5.3
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3550
Newest User:
Kevin
Members Online:
2
Guests Online:
2038

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com