Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 20

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 20

BRAD WILTON

Tonight, another comp play total, and that will be on the Under in the Mariners-Angels contest with Hernandez and Hanson.

These teams are concluding their three game set, and the first pair of games have both held Under the total, including a 1-0 final last night in Anaheim. That makes the Under 6-3 in the 9 series meetings this year between these West rivals.

Look for another Under tonight, as Felix Hernandez has already held down the Halos once this season back in April, and enters this game on a 3-0 run with a 1.84 ERA his last 4 trips to the mound, and has a 12 inning scoreless stretch coming into tonight's start.

Tommy Hanson will counter for Los Angeles, and Hanson has been throwing much better of late, winning his last 2 starts. Hanson is fresh off striking out a season-high 8 batters in the Angels 6-2 win over the Yankees last weekend.

Runs could be scarce again tonight.

M's-Angels to hold Under.

4* SEATTLE-L.A. ANGELS UNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 20

Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spurs +6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I really went back and forth with this game. At first I thought the Spurs blew it and now Miami is going to blow them out in Game 7. This might actually happen, but as a handicapper you have to separate your emotions from selecting games. Just like when I picked the Spurs in Game 6 I said “What has Miami done to prove they should be a 7pt favorite”? Well, nothing has changed in 48 hours. I will say this about the Spurs. This is the best team in the last 15 years. They have won on big stages and losing in the NBA Finals is something they have not experienced. This team is well coached and as far as team level talent there is no question they are the better team. Everyone is making a big deal about Lebron taking off his headband for the first time. He doing that did not make him a better basketball player. This is a team game. The guy gets so much heat and in a way it’s deserving. Simply put the Spurs counted their eggs before they hatched and chocked that game away. Miami might very well win this game and to be honest I don’t care and hope they do because I am tired of hearing about Lebron and you know that is all we will hear about in the offseason if they lose. I do not think the Spurs are going to go down without a fight. We are playing the odds here. We had a great NBA playoff run and I hope you take advantage of my early bird special which ends after this weekend. Baseball remains free at the website. Take San Antonio.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 20

Wunderdog

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pick: Pittsburgh +165

After two decades of failure, the Pittsburgh Pirates are a team on the rise. This is a team has been rebuilt to finally reach "contender" status. They are playing .500 baseball on the road for the first time in ages, and are certainly in a winnable situation every time they take the field. Homer Bailey has a losing record for a top-level team, and his season has been up and down. The Pirates have been strong off a weak offensive showing in their previous contest, as they have an admirable 20-7 mark in their last 27 after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. They stand a perfect 5-0 in an extended four-game series finale in their last five. The Reds have taken the donut in Bailey's last 6 starts on regular 4 days rest at 0-6. Take the Pirates.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 20

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio Spurs at Miami HeatFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Miami HeatFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Home teams in Game Sevens have traditionally done very well in the NBA Finals, going 14-3 and the road team hasn't won since 1978. Miami also has the momentum after a huge comeback late in the fourth quarter and for LeBron James personally, his confidence has to be through the roof after putting on a show in the fourth quarter. Miami won by 23 points against Indiana at home in a Game Seven setting in their previous series, and we feel the home court advantage will play a big role. Spurs have relied on their three-point shooting throughout this series but they were just 5-18 in Game Six. You live by the three, you die by the three - and we'll back the Heat to win on their home court as they pull away in the second half to a big win.

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Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Dodgers vs. San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even with a loss yesterday, the Padres are still .500 on the season, checking in at 36-36. That includes a solid 22-14 mark here at Petco.
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Even with a split yesterday and win last night, the Dodgers are still 30-40 on the season, 11-20 on the road.
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The Padres are 24-13 (+6.6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, the Dodgers are 27-43 (-13.4) as road underdogs in the 100 to 125 range.
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Marquis goes for the home team. All he's done is go 9-2 on the season, 6-1 here at Petco and a perfect 8-0 his last 10 starts.
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Marquis is also 8-4 with a 2.76 ERA against the Dodgers. That includes a 2-0 mark with a stellar 2.53 ERA in four starts against them since the start of last year.
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LA Manager Don Mattingly noted: "Marquis is a tough matchup, he's given us trouble. He seems like he pitches good every time. He's a guy that keeps the ball down. He can run the ball at you and break the ball off the plate to the other side. He's tough."
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Fife has only made two road starts. He's 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in those games.
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With Fife averaging less than five innings away from home, note that the Dodgers' relievers have a poor 4.55 ERA on the road. By comparison, San Diego relievers have a 2.79 ERA at home.
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Not only should the Padres potentially enjoy an edge on the mound but they've also got the schedule in their favor. While the Padres played an afternoon game at San Francisco yesterday, the Dodgers played a day/night double-header at New York. (They lost the first and one the second.)
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Note that LA, which is still without Kemp, is only 10-19 (-12.9) off a win this season.
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All things considered, things set up nicely for the home team and the price is fair. Consider San Diego

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FezzikFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spurs +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I truly believe the Spurs are every bit as good as Miami.   The Heat had less than a 5% chance to win game 6, they got there, just like Chris Moneymaker spiking a miracle River Ace vs. Ivey.
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The Spurs are a mentally tough team.  They won't fold after the Game 6 debacle.....rather it is clearly the Heat IMO that are likely to crumble when this one gets tight.
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Grab the +6 (I Bet +8-150), the only buy I do in the NBA is through the 7.
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Spurs / Heta Under 189FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Teams got tight, and stop taking any shots early in the shot clock.  While this might not apply to the Spurs, it WILL apply to the Heat.   Game 6 was at 182 with seconds remaining, and 2 miracle threes got it to 190 in regulation.  I expect this 2h and 4Q  is going to REALLY bog down.

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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs +170FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are getting the Chicago Cubs at an excellent price Thursday as a massive road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. Once again, Scott Feldman isn't getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers in this one.
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Feldman has been the best starter in Chicago's rotation this year, going 6-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 13 starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last two road starts, giving up just 3 earned runs and 10 base runners over 13 innings against the Angels and Mets.
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Lance Lynn is having a solid season for St. Louis at 9-1 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 14 starts. Still, his numbers are worse than Feldman's on the year. Plus, Lynn has been rocked in his last two starts, giving up 11 earned runs and 20 base runners over 11 innings for a 9.00 ERA.
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Chicago is an impressive 8-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season. The Cardinals are 0-6 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Chicago is 4-0 in Feldman's last 4 starts when working on 4 days of rest. St. Louis is 0-4 in its last 4 games following a win. Bet the Cubs Thursday.

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MLB Predictions

San Francisco Giants -173
San Francisco Giants -1.5 +130

The Miami Marlins will travel to San Francisco after losing the final two games in a three game series with Arizona. Over their three games they managed just 5 runs scored and drop to 22-49 on the season (9-26 on the road). This will be their first meeting with the defending World Series champs who took the final 2 of 3 from San Diego to improve to 37-34 on the year and 23-12 at home. Miami’s starting pitcher is Tom Koehler who is 0-5 on the season with a 5.09 ERA, .250 OBA and 1.23. He had a good start to the year, but he has allowed 3+ earned runs in 5 straight starts and has a 9.18 ERA over his last three starts which includes allowing 9 earned runs over 4.2 innings of work in his last time out. Chad Gaudin will go for San Francisco and he is 2-1 with a 2.83 ERA, .227 OBA and 1.20 WHIP over his 21 appearances. Two of his three starts have been quality and he’s 2-0 as a starter. His only non-quality start was his last time out and it wasn’t too bad allowing 4 earned runs over 5 innings in Atlanta. Take note that the Marlins are just 12-40 in their last 52 road games dating back to last season, 1-4 in Koehler’s last 5 starts as an underdog between +151 and +200, and 1-7 in his last 8 starts overall. The Giants are 54-18 in their last 72 games as a home favorite between -151 to -200, 37-17 in their last 54 home games overall, and 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400. 8 of the Giants last 10 wins have been by 2+ runs. We will split up today’s play into 2 one unit plays again going one unit on the money line and one unit on the run line to reduce our risk.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 20

Dave Price

Washington Nationals -172

The Rockies have lost 7 of 10 on the road and 35 of 51 as a road dog. They'll have a difficult time keeping thess negative streaks from extending as they go up against Jordan Zimmermann. Washington's right-hander has been awesome, especially at home where he's 6-0 with an ERA of 1.06 in 7 starts. The Nats have won all 7. The Nationals are 23-7 in Zimmermann's last 30 starts, 21-5 in his last 26 starts as a favorite, 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Roy Oswalt has had an outstanding career, but his best days are behind him. He was 4-3 with a 5.80 ERA in 17 games - nine starts - last season for Texas. Take Washington.

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Jeff Alexander

Atlanta Braves -177

The Braves have won 17 of their last 23 against the Mets, and I expect them to continue to dominate their division rival with Mike Minor on the mound. The Braves are 8-0 in Minor's last 8 starts, and he's given up 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of those outings. The Mets, on the other hand, are 2-8 in Jon Niese's last 10 starts. He gave up 7 runs in 4 innings versus the Braves in one of the defeats during this span. Bet the Braves.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 20

Ian Cameron

Miami at San Francisco
Play: Over

My clients and I have cashed a few Miami Marlins Over tickets since the returns of Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison to the lineup and I think we have another solid betting opportunity tonight as they head to the Bay Area to face the San Francisco Giants.

One of those Miami Over bets came in Tom Koehler’s last start as he was lit up big time allowing 9 runs on 8 hits in 4.2 rough innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Koehler simply doesn’t have dominating, overpowering stuff and it has shown in his last three starts as he has been knocked around for 17 earned runs and five homers. His performance level on the road hasn’t been good either notching an 0-2 record and a 5.04 ERA in four starts. I expect the surging San Francisco lineup which has scored 4+ runs in five of its last seven games to have a lot of success. On the flip side, I’m not sure how much longer Chad Gaudin can succeed as a starting pitcher. He had his worst start last time out against Atlanta allowing four runs on eight hits including two homers in five short innings. Miami has scored 5+ runs in five of its last 10 games and it’s been a product of the returns of Stanton and Morrison.

Miami is 3-0 to the Over in Koehler’s last three starts and they’ve gone on a 9-4-1 Over run in their last 14 games with totals in the 7 to 8.5 range. Miami’s game totals are lower due to their season long poor hitting numbers which have seen an uptick over the last two weeks. This is a low enough total at 7.5 involving two lineups hitting better of late and two suspect starters to play this one Over.

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