Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

Steve Janus

Chicago Bulls +7.5

The Bulls have now lost two straight in the series and have failed to cover the spread in both games. There's no doubt the public will be on the Heat in Game 4, which is of importance here. Oddsmakers are well aware of the public and yet the current line on this game is a full point less than what we saw Miami favored in Game 3.

In my opinion, that's a pretty good indication that they feel like the Bulls will keep this game close. I couldn't agree more. Chicago is clearly the team with more to play for, as the series is all but over if they lose this game. I'm taking the points as insurance, but I like the Bulls chances of winning this game outright!

The Bulls have been in this situation before and delivered. Chicago is an impressive 13-4 ATS this season off a home loss, a solid 24-10 ATS over their last 34 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

Tony George

Memphis -4.5

I do not see OK City winning in Memphis at any time in this series..to much Gasol and Randolf and points in the paint from a stout Memphis team who is physical. and those type of teams trhe Thunder struggle with.  No chemistry on offense for OK City, especially on the road.  Durrant, much like Mello for the Knicks, cannot do it alone.  OK City scoring 94 ppg and allowing 95 ppg their last 5 games, that does not cut it in the NBA Post Season.  The starter points is an 11 point advantage for Memphis if you average the last 5 games between these 2 overall, and for OK City losing Westbrook and counting on Fisher to make up the difference is not working.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

Joe Gavazzi

Thunder +4.5

Again the fundamentals side with Memphis who leads this series 2 games to 1 on consecutive victories of 6 points. That occurred on Saturday when they held OKC scoreless following an 81-81 tie with 2 minutes remaining (including 2 critical missed foul shots by Durant). And that victory occurred despite OKC being +7 on the boards. But the Memphis defense stepped up once again holding the Thunder to 36%. This is clearly not the same OKC team without Westbrook. Since the game in which he was injured, OKC is 4-4 following a 60-22 regular season. Memphis playing with much greater continuity at 18-1 SU on this court including 4-0 in the Playoffs, the Grizz have now covered 8 straight in the Playoffs. As you would imagine, NBA Playoff zig-zag situations abound with a Game #4 road team off consecutive losses and the home team off 3 or more consecutive spread wins. We search for the middle again based on these strong situations and the fact we are holding Memphis for the series at their underdog price of +140.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

LA ANGELS -130 over Kansas City: I know that the Halos are off a 6 game road trip and that Joe Blanton has been bad this year, but I feel that they are clearly the right side in this one. Joe Blanton comes in with an 0-6 mark and a 5.66 ERA on the year, but he has pitched much better of late, with a 3.48 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is 0-3 in those starts thanks to an offense that has given him just 1.3 rpg worth of support over that stretch. Well, until last night this is an offense that has shown signs of waking up of late and that offense should get back on track tonight vs Luis Mendoza, who has just been a horrible starter this year and in his career overall. Luis is 12-17 with a 5.16 ERA in his career as a starter and is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA this year. Now unlike Blanton he is getting worse as he has a 9.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. Offensively the Royals come in struggling as they have scored just 3.8 rpg and have hit just .216 in their last 5 games. Both starters are struggling, but I will go with the improving offense and improving starter to come up with the big home win here. 


Arizona/ Atlanta Under 8: Good pitching matchup tonight should lead to a low scoring game. Wade Miley has pitched well for the D-Backs this year, especially at home, where he has a 1.64 ERA in 2 starts, while overall he has allowed more than 3 ER's just once. Mike Minor has also pitched well this year as he has a 2.96 ERA overall and he also has allowed more than 3 ER's just once this year. Mike does have a 4.38 ERA in his last 3 starts, but just an 0.87 WHIP over that stretch, so he really isn't pitching all that bad. He will also be taking on a struggling Arizona offense that has put up just 2.2 rpg, while hitting .208 in their last 5 games.  Atlanta has not been that good at the plate of late either, hitting just .213 and scoring just 3.4 rpg in their last 5 games. Both offenses should continue to struggle in this one as pitching will rule the night in Arizona.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

SPORTS WAGERS

MEMPHIS -4½ over Oklahoma City

77% of Game 3 winners when a series is tied 1-1 have gone on to close out the opponent. Memphis, learning and growing from its past mistakes, will not allow the Thunder to win Game 4 on their home-court the same way they did two years ago when the situation was exactly the same and the Thunder came away with the 133-123 victory in triple overtime. Thing is, the situation is not the exact same anymore. Whatever stats and records that the Thunder achieved this season and the past have to be forgotten now that Russell Westbrook won’t be returning. This is a completely different team that now relies exclusively on Kevin Durant to create shots, something he hasn’t had to do since his first season with the Seattle Sonics in 2007-2008.

This series reminds us a lot of the Bad Boys Pistons repeatedly overcoming the Chicago Bulls of the 1980s led by Michael Jordan because those Bulls relied too much on one player to beat an excellent Detroit team with multiple parts that fit together very well. The Grizzlies, like those late-80s Pistons, play hard-nosed defense and they’re the scrappiest team in the league. Kevin Durant will work for every point, rebound, and assist. The Grizzlies are going to force Durant to beat them and that will be extremely tough when going up against a great on-ball defender every possession, as well as another help-defender (usually in the form of the bulky Zach Randolph) coming from the weak side. The Thunder will need for their players to hit their mid-range and 3-point shots, something that we are doubtful they can do. The Thunder role players, including Serge Ibaka haven’t been able to hit their jump shots on a consistent basis. Although Ibaka finally played good defense on Randolph in Game 3, limiting Z-bo to only 8 points on 4 of 12 shooting, Ibaka was again brutal offensively as he shot only 6-17. Serge’s offense has eroded ever since he missed a potential game-tying tip-in at the buzzer in Game 4 against the Rockets. We are hesitant to believe that Ibaka and the rest of the Thunder cast find their groove in this one, since the Grizzlies were a top two defensive team in the regular season and will continue to lock-down the suddenly predictable Thunder offense.

The Grizzlies certainly have their own areas to improve in but we feel confident they can rectify them here. Game 3 saw the Grizzlies get outworked in the paint, an area that they usually dominate. They were out-rebounded on the offensive end 14 to 5, as well as outscored in the paint 44 to 30. Memphis has typically owned both the rebounding advantage as well as points in the paint, since very few teams can match up with their front-court. With a shaky Ibaka, and the artist formerly known as Kendrick Perkins manning the middle, we have faith that the Grizzlies will improve on those facets of the game when the ball tips off. Look for the Grizzlies, winners of 18 of their last 19 games at home, to take a commanding 3-1 series lead, and cover the cheap price.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +167 over BOSTON

We have the Maple Leafs in the series so we’re not going to bet this game but they do come recommended taking back a price like this. Boston appears to be a step behind the Maple Leafs. The Leafs are slowly but surely wearing down this Boston team with their speed and physical play. The Bruins are also frustrated that they haven’t been unable to score many goals against James Reimer. The Bruins had a stranglehold on this series and have not been able to finish the deal. That weighs on the B’s collective minds and they’ll come into this game with more pressure than the previous two.

Toronto comes into this one with no pressure whatsoever. The Leafs have played their two best games of the series in Boston and the feeling among them now is that they can win it. The game is a real tossup. There isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which goaltender is going to come up with the big save or which team is going to get more opportunities on the power-play. What we do know is that the Maple Leafs are taking back a big tag in a game in which their chances are equally as good as the B’s chances and that makes them a must play. Lastly, the Maple Leafs flew out of Toronto last night and arrived in Boston at 1:15 AM. The Bruins had plane difficulties and didn’t leave Toronto until 9:00 AM this morning. It may not mean anything but being delayed for 10 hours after failing to close out the series can’t be beneficial. The bottom line is that the Bruins have not been sharp and have proven to be very beatable. Bet this only if you don't have a series bet. We do, so this is a NO BET. 


WASHINGTON -½ +145 over N.Y. Rangers

The other Game 7 features a series in which the road team has not been able to win. That said, we can’t get on board for either, as the price prevents us from stepping in on the favorite while the road team has proven nothing. It’s actually mind-boggling trying to understand how both the Rangers and Caps can look so good at home and so lethargic on the road. The effort by New York in Game 5 in Washington was inexcusable. Not to be outdone, the Caps effort in New York yesterday was an embarrassment. Neither team has had a killer instinct. Neither team has had its best scorers step up to the plate and deliver. Neither team is worthy of a wager on the road and neither team can be trusted spotting a tag. Hold a gun to our heads and we’d probably take the Caps at -½ +145 but the beautiful thing about sports betting is we get to pass on games like this one and that’s precisely what we’ll do. NO BET.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta/ARIZONA Over 8

Chase Field is one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. Its spacious outfield makes it ripe for doubles and triples. The thin desert air in Phoenix is also conducive to power hitters, as balls will travel a great distance in the air, even when the park's retractable roof is engaged to cut down on the desert heat.

The two pitchers going tonight do not have positive results against the team they’ll be facing. Current Diamondbacks have 10 hits in 31 career AB’s versus Mike Minor and current Braves have an astonishing eight hits in 44 AB’s (.444) against lefty Wade Miley. Incidentally, the Braves have won eight of 12 games against southpaws. Atlanta last came into this park in April of 2012 for a four-game series. The final scores read 6-4, 3-2, 9-1 and 10-2 with Atlanta winning three of the four games. The Braves thrived here last season and there’s no reason they can’t put up a bunch more today. It may sound like we’re making a pretty good case for Atlanta to win but Mike Minor’s 52% fly-ball bias profile is one that is very likely going to run into some trouble at this park. Too many factors point to the over and that’s precisely the way we’ll play it. 


Texas +113 over OAKLAND

The Rangers are heating up with four wins in a row and seven wins in their past nine games. Justin Grimm has been one of the surprises of the young season. He’s certainly making a case for himself to claim a secure spot in the Rangers' rotation. Grimm has struck out 31 batters in 29 frames while walking 11 and comes in with a skills supported 3.45 ERA. Grimm’s groundball rate is 43% and his line-drive rate is just 17%. While he has a plus fastball at times (up to 96) and a power curve, he was never been a big strikeout pitcher in the minors. Instead, he relied on his ability to throw quality pitches with great control. That has now changed, as Grimm has made some adjustments, he’s using a changeup to give to now give him three usable pitches and he’s missing a lot of bats. Oakland's offense is a bit decimated due to outfield injuries and the park factors certainly favor a young pitcher looking to build on early-season success. Expect that success to continue here for Grimm.

Oakland is heading in the wrong direction. The A’s have dropped six of seven while scoring three runs or fewer in all six losses. Over their past 10 games, the A’s are batting a combined .208, which is the AL’s worst mark and so is their 25 runs scored over that same stretch. We’ve been fading A.J. Griffin quite a bit so far and we’re surely not going to pull up the reins here. Griffin’s skills are among the worst in the business with a troubling batted ball profile of 29% groundballs, 25% line-drives and 46% fly-balls. Over his past four starts, Griffin’s batted ball profile is even worse at 26%/26%/48% GB/LD/FB. Griffin’s ERA is a respectable 3.83 but it’s been due to an unsustainable strand rate of 83%. Griffin has been getting hit hard the entire year. Almost every out is hit to the warning track or is a frozen rope hit right at someone. This is the profile of a pitcher that is going to get crushed and while Griffin could be lucky again here, he’s prime fade material. There is no question that Texas and Grimm offer up some of the best value of the season so far against Griffin and the reeling A’s.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

Wunderdog

Game: Miami at Chicago
Pick: 1st Half Under 95

The Miami Heat broke open a close game three in the fourth quarter on their way to a 2-1 series lead with a 10 point win in Chicago. The Heat were the top shooting team in the NBA for the regular season, and have held the line in the playoffs as well. They have however shot the ball extremely well the last two games connecting on 77-140 for 55%. And that is over their head, especially against a Chicago team that is defensively solid, especially at home. I expect the Bulls to come out in game four with a defensive mindset, in much the same way thy did in game one where they held the Heat to 15 points in the first period and 37 for the opening half. They have to extend themselves on the defensive end, and make the game even more of a half-court battle. Miami has scored well in the last two games, but 64 of those points have come in the 4th quarter, or 32 a contest, because the Bulls depth is depleted by injuries, and they are simply out of gas for the fourth quarter. Miami has played 18 games in the first or second round of the playoffs the last two seasons, and no team has scored more than 94 points against them, so you know they will be there defensively early on. Play the first half UNDER the total.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

Harry Bondi

OAKLAND (-110) over Texas

Back to the scene of the crime for the Texas Rangers who return to Oakland on Monday for the first time since their epic end of the season collapse that allowed the Athletics to win the American League West and relegated the Rangers to the AL wild-card game. Oakland’s three-game sweep included a final-day victory to overtake the Rangers. Oakland limps home to start this three game homestand after losing six of its last seven games. But they have been solid at home particularly against Texas. A's are 17-6 when tonight's starter A.J. Griffin takes the hill and have gone 7-2 at home against the Rangers.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

BRAD WILTON

Monday's free play is the Over in the Heat-Bulls game.

The last 2 games in this series, and 4 of the last 5 overall played between the teams have ended up playing Over the total. Miami has been able to net at least 104 points or more in all 3 of the games played thus far, and if they can get to that triple digit mark again tonight, we will be that much closer to making it 3 in a row Over the total.

Chicago has played 6 of their last 7 this postseason Over the total, and I say this one lands Over the total as well.

Play Game 4 between the Heat and the Bulls over the posted price.

3* MIAMI-CHICAGO OVER

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

JEFF BENTON

Monday freebie is Under the total in Oklahoma City-Memphis.

Oklahoma City used to be a high-scoring outfit, but when James Harden left, the Thunder offense to a hit, and of course when Russell Westbrook went down to injury, the Thunder really took a hit.

OKC has played 9 games this postseason, and 7 of the 9 have landed Under the total. That includes 2 of the 3 played versus the Grizzlies.

The Under has also been the play 4 of the last 7 times these teams have faced one another.

Until I see either team consistently put the ball through the hoop, I have to play the Thunder-Grizzlies Under the posted total.

2* OKLAHOMA CITY-MEMPHIS UNDER

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

CRAIG DAVIS

Free play of the day on the Milwaukee Brewers on the road at Pittsburgh... a team they have completely dominated over the last six years or so.

On paper this looks like a horrible selection as the Brewers have dropped nine of their last 10 and have lost four straight... looking for a very important first win on this 10-game road trip.

Plus, AJ Burnett (3-3, 2.57 ERA) looks like a completely dominant pitcher over a guy like Marco Estrada (2-2, 6.05 ERA), but sometimes paper can be deceiving.

Let's start with the fact that Milwaukee is desperate for a win and simply can't continue losing this way with the talent they have.

Try these two juicy nuggets on for size...

First, the Pirates have won a season-high three games on four occasions, but have never won four straight.

Second, Milwaukee is 71-25 against the Pirates since the start of 2007. That's nearly three wins for every loss in this series... I like our side for sure.

This is more of a value play than anything, but I like our chances. Take the Brewers as the dog to win outright as your free play of the day.

3* MILWAUKEE

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner for tonight is going to be on the Angels of Anaheim, laying a cheap price to the visiting Kansas City Royals. And even though I'm going straight action with the Halos, I will say I don't mind having right-hander Joe Blanton on the hill. I know the guy is 0-6 with a 5.66 ERA, but he's been much better than those numbers.

Blanton has now fired three straight quality starts while giving up nine runs (eight earned) in 20-2/3 innings over that span. He is in after limiting the Astros to three runs over six innings last Wednesday in a loss. And because he lost to the lowly 'Stros, I think he will be hungrier than ever for a W today.

And for the record, Blanton is 3-1 with a 1.76 ERA in six career starts against the Royals, and that ERA is Blanton's best against any Major League team.

Take the Halos tonight.

3* ANGELS

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 13

NHL Predictions

Maple Leafs +0.5

This write up doesn’t differ from the 4 times we’ve taken the Leafs this series either to win or +0.5 in regulation (we are 3-1 in those plays). Toronto is getting great goaltending and with a solid penalty kill they always seem to be in these games with the Bruins. They’ve beaten the Bruins twice in Boston and I could see them shocking everyone with another victory tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bruins get more chances to score than the Leafs, but right now they are failing to convert many of their chances (just two goals in their past two games) and James Reimer is playing great. Instead of taking the Maple Leafs to win I will take the generous price on them to at least force an overtime or win outright with a +0.5 in regulation bet.


Rangers / Capitals Under 5

The Rangers and Capitals will also come down to a deciding Game 7 in Washington tonight. So far we’ve seen totals in this series starting with Game 1 of 4, 1, 7, 7, 3, and 1. Every game that has been played in Washington has gone UNDER the total as Holtby has allowed just 2 goals against in those 3 games. I expect Henrik Lundqvist to match those efforts, as he has looked sharp lately allowing just 2 goals over his past 2 starts (including a shutout yesterday). These two teams played in a Game 7 last year and we saw a final score of 2-1 for 3 total goals scored. Game 7"s often see teams tighten up defensively as they know that one mistake can cost them their playoff lives. Both teams have the ability to score, but will be focusing on good defensive hockey tonight and with two hot goalies I like the UNDER here.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199678 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
43446
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
267943
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.2
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3357
Newest User:
Dave
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
3141

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com