Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 17

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 17

Don Best Consensus

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: San Francisco Giants

The Giants are 6-1 in Vogelsong's last 7 starts vs. National League Central. San Francisco is 4-1 in Vogelsong's last 5 road starts. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Milwaukee is 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 17

Ross Benjamin

New Orleans @ Dallas
Play: Dallas -8

The Hornets have been reeling down the final stretch of the regular season having been decimated by injuries to key players. The Hornets enter tonight having lost their last 4, 6 of the last 7, and 8 of their last 10 games. In their last 5 games the Hornets have allowed a lofty 104.0 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 49.3% from the field. Dallas is a very profitable 18-5 ATS the last 2 seasons as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12.5 with a large +13.6 point per game differential. Dallas hasn't quit down the stretch going 4-2 SU&ATS in their last 6 games.

Any home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 that has allowed 40 points or less in the first half in each of their last 2 games, and they average 99 points or more per game on the season is 36-13 ATS (73.5%) since the start of the 1996 season. Play on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points as my free selection of the night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 17

Tony Karpinski

Arizona vs. New York Y
Play: Under   

The Yankees who should have more confidence now after winning 6 of their last 7 games and also the Yanks have beaten the D-Backs 6 of their last 7 meetings. . C.C. has a great ERA against Arizona and almost all of the Yankees batters have never faced Miley so I am expecting very few hits tonight and backing the UNDER 8 runs.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 17

Jeff Alexander

Detroit Pistons +5.5

Take the points with a Detroit squad that has won its last 4 straight up and has covered the number in its last 8. The Pistons are clearly looking to finish strong. They have the edge here against a Brooklyn team with nothing to play for. The Nets have the 4th seed locked up and can rest players as a result. Detroit was completely embarrassed by Brooklyn last month so this game is personal as well.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 17

Jesse Schule

Milwaukee Brewers -116

The Brewers won Game 1 of their series with the defending champs in Milwaukee last night, out-slugging the Giants in a 10-8 ballgame.

We might not see as many runs in tonight's game, especially for the Giants going up against Kyle Lohse. The right-hander has given the Brewers two quality starts so far this season, but unfortunately they haven't provided him with any run support, losing those games 2-0 to St. Louis and 3-1 to Arizona.

Lohse allowed one run on five hits over five innings in his season debut in Milwaukee, with five Ks. He was 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 2012, and he's looked as if he picked up right where he left off so far this year.

The Giants will send Ryan Vogelsong to the mound tonight, and he's struggling early on this season. He's been roughed up for five runs in each of his two starts this year, and he's given up 17 hits over 11 innings.

Aramis Ramirez has seen more of Vogelsong than any other player in the Brewers lineup, and he's had some success. Ramirez is hitting .389 with a pair of home runs in 18 career at bats. Rickie Weeks is 2-for-3 with a double in his career versus Vogelsong.

It could be another tough outing for the struggling Giants hurler.

Take the Brew Crew.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 17

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

NEW YORK -148 over Arizona: The Yanks are hot right now as they have won 6 of their last 7 games. Tonight they get their ace on the mound in CC Sabathia and he has pitched well out the gate, with a 2-1 mark and a 2.25 ERA. CC Struggled some in his opening start vs Boston. but bounced back very well in his last 2 starts, allowing just 1 ER in the two games. CC has thrived in interleague games, going 22-8 with a 3.41 ERA in his 45 career inteleague starts, including going 12-2 with a 2.56 ERA in his last 18 interleague starts. Very dominating. Wade Miley is off to a nice 2-0 starts and he is 2-1 with an 0.83 ERA in 3 career interleague starts, but the Yanks offense is playing too well right now to think that he will be able to slow them down. Arizona is 1-9 their last 9 meetings in New York and I don't see them improving that record in this one. Look for CC to dominate interleague play once again. 


Baltimore/ Tampa Bay Under 8:  The Rays can't score right now, yet they are the favorites and a big reason for that is Matt Moore. Matt comes in with a 2-0 mark and he has yet to allow an ER in 11.1 innings of work. Matt has faced the O's 4 times in his career and has allowed a total of 4 ER's in those 4 starts. Chris Tillman has struggled out the gate with a 7.00 ERA, but he is off a fine year, in which he had a 2.93 ERA and he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 6 of his 7 career starts vs the Rays. The Rays hit well under .200 on the road and their road ERA is a solid 3.38, which translates into an 0-5-1 Under mark for them on the road. I look for the O's offense to struggle vs Moore, while the Ray's offense will struggle as usual. Should be a low scoring game tonight.


St Louis/ Pittsburgh Under 7.5:  62 % of the public on the Over yet this game has gone from 8 Under to 7.5 Under.  I agree with the move cause I feel this game will be all about pitching. Shelby Miller has mad just 3 career starts for the Cardinal and he has posted an 0.98 ERA in those starts, including a 1.46 ERA this year. He has never faced Pittsburgh and that should give him an edge here. What also should give him an edge is the fact that this is very much a pitcher's park and Pittsburgh is one of the worst hitting teams in the league, hitting just .214 so far. The Cardinals have hit the stitches off the ball so far , but they don't generally put up a ton of runs in this park, so don't expect them to come close to the 10 spot they put up last night, especially since Burnett has a career 3.13 ERA in this park. AJ's games have averaged 5.3 rpg and the UNDER is 9-1-1 in his last 11 starts as a home dog. I expect another low scoring game tonight.


Detroit/ Seattle Over 6.5: I don't really see this as a 2-1 type of game, but more like a game that will be tied 3-3 late, which will give us at least 7 runs in this one. Detroit comes in asa the top hitting offense in the league and they should be able to score a few on King Felix, who has not looked all that dominating in the early going. He has lost something off his fastball and he has allowed 16 hits and 4 walks in his last 2 starts. I expect this hot Detroit to have a good showing vs him tonight.  The Seattle offense is not that great, but they still score 3.67 rpg on the year and 3.5 rpg at home, so I do expect them to put up at least 3 off of Max Scherzer, who does have a 4.09 ERA on the year and a leaky bullpen (5.34 ERA) behind him. Look for both teams to notch at least 3 runs each in this one giving us a nice late night win on the Over.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 17

Rob Veno   


Detroit at Seattle
Play: Seattle

There’s obviously unlimited backlash against this anemic Seattle Mariners offense as money pours in against Felix Hernandez today. Analysis of the statistical facts early on suggests that this Seattle offense can’t generate enough offense to support Hernandez in this matchup. They could only muster three runs in each of King Felix’s last two starts versus lesser opposing starters Dylan Axelrod (Chicago WS) and Justin Grimm (Texas). Those games resulted in Seattle losses and in the Texas game, Hernandez simply didn’t pitch well enough to win allowing 10 hits (15 total bases) and two walks in 6.2 innings.

After a pair of subpar outings, expect Hernandez to bounce back with a prime effort tonight. With nothing wrong physically or mechanically and Hernandez saying his stuff was pretty good last game and he just made a couple mistakes, it seems he’s ready to go in this spot. He’ll have to ignore the impulse to try and be ultra-fine against Detroit which has the firepower to capitalize. In his last five starts vs. the Tigers, he’s recorded five quality starts and allowed just 39 baserunners over 34.2 innings.

His counterpart tonight Max Scherzer has been almost equally as good against Seattle with four quality starts in his last five tries. He owns an 18/3 K:BB mark in his two starts this season but his nemesis of running up high pitch counts has gotten him to the showers after only six and five inning stints. With the Tigers bullpen is a current state of flux, Seattle could benefit from an early exit tonight. The reinsertion of leadoff and cleanup hitters Franklin Gutierrez and Mike Morse for the second consecutive game should inject some run scoring ability for Seattle here. Hernandez is obviously capable of outdueling and outlasting Scherzer while the back end combo of fireballer Carter Capps and closer Tom Wilhelmsen can close the door if necessary. Not real sure when or if ever again Felix Hernandez will be a home underdog so value is certainly on the plate here as well.

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