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College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, February 28

College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, February 28

College Knowledge

-- North Carolina won 14 of last 15 games vs Clemson, winning last four by 10-2-5-22 points; UNC won four of last five visits here, winning by 19-22-2-2. Tar Heels are 9-3 in last 12 games but 2-3 in last five on road, winning by 12 at both BC/Ga Tech. ACC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-5 vs spread. Clemson lost five of last six games, losing its last two home games by total of three points.
-- Ohio State (-17) outscored Northwestern 14-2 on foul line, won by 10 (69-59) over Wildcats two weeks ago; NU made 11-26 from arc. OSU is 3-4 on Big Dozen road, losing last two, at Michigan/Wisconsin- they've got Indiana on deck. Northwestern lost its last five games, last three by 21+ points- four of its five home losses are by 20+. 13 of last 18 OSU games stayed under total. Big Dozen single digit home dogs are 11-13.
-- Detroit is 8-6 against #18 non-conference schedule in country; Titans lost two of last three road games, are 2-5 vs teams in top 75, with three of five losses by 13+ points. Quick turnaround for Titans after winning by point on Senior Night vs Loyola Tuesday. Temple won five of last six games, scoring 80 ppg; they won six of last seven home games, have games with two A-16 lightweights on deck, so no looking ahead here.
-- Louisiana Tech (-2.5) survived 51-48 brickfest at Utah State Jan 26, as Tech shot 33% from floor, State 27.3%; Bulldogs won last 16 games- its last three home wins were by 13-13-15 points. State won five of its last seven games; they're 5-2 on WAC road, with losses by 13-11 points. Shaw was 9-16 inside arc in first meeting; other Aggies were 3-25. WAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-14 against the spread.

-- San Diego (+5.5) won 70-66 at San Francisco Jan 10, making 11-22 on arc, ending 6-game series skid. USF won last three visits here, by 2-10-11 points. Toreros lost eight of last ten games, losing last four, scoring just 56.3 ppg in last three. USF won four of last five road games; visiting team won six of their last seven games. WCC home teams are 2-10 when spread is 5 or less points. USD lost three of last four at home.
-- Cal Bears won last five games, allowing 61 ppg, to get back on bubble; they beat Utah 62-57 (-1) Jan 24, forcing 17 turnovers (+8). Cal won its last five home games, with three of five by 8+. Utah is 1-6 on road, with all six losses by 9+ points, but they're 5-2 vs spread in those setbacks. Cal is 4-2 as home favorite, covering last three. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 4-9 vs spread. 14 of last 18 Cal games stayed under total.
-- Missouri (-14) outscored South Carolina 28-11 on foul line in 71-65 home brickfest over Gamecocks Jan 22, where teams combined to make 11-47 behind arc. Mizzou is 1-5 on SEC road, with only win at dreadful Miss State; they're 3-5 in last eight games as favorites. Carolina is 1-7 in last eight games; they're 6-5 as SEC underdogs, 2-2 at home. SEC home underdogs of 11 or less points are 18-10 against the spread.
-- Duke won eight in row, 14 of last 15 vs Virginia, winning last three in this arena by 16-18-15 points; Blue Devils are 4-3 on ACC road, 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, 0-3 vs teams in top 60; #17 Virginia is 7-0 at home in ACC, with six wins by 9+ points. Cavaliers lost two of last threr games. ACC home teams are 10-3 when spread is 2 or less points. Duek has revenge game with Miami coming up Saturday.
-- Cal Poly shot 57% inside arc, outscored Northridge 24-12 on charity stripe in 75-64 (-6.5) win Jan 26, its third win in last four series games. Home side won last eight series games; Mustangs lost last five visits to Northridge, with four losses by 12+ points. Big West home favorites of less than 5 points are 12-14 vs spread. Matadors lost last three games, by 3-7-12 points; they're 1-4 vs spread as Big West home favorites.

-- Pacific lost its last two visits to Fullerton by 3-5 points; Tigers made 8-13 from arc in 71-67 (-7) home win over Fullerton Jan 26; Titans were 12-24 from arc, in first series loss in last five games. Pacific lost four of last six games; they lost last four road games, by 5-13-5-9 points. Titans are 1-6 vs spread as Big West home favorite, with one win by more than 7. Big West home teams are 14-18 when spread is less than five points.
-- Oregon (-2) shot 61% inside arc, won 79-66 in Corvallis Jan 6, fourth win in last five series tilts; State won two of last three visits to Eugene- they're 5-1 as Pac-12 road dogs, losing away games by 10-1-3-8-10, with win at Wash State. Four of last five Beaver games stayed under the total. Pac-12 single digit home favorites are 19-36 vs spread. Oregon won four of last five games; they're 1-6 vs spread as a Pac-12 home favorite.
-- Gonzaga shot 70% inside arc, was up 40-21 at half of 83-63 win over BYU Jan 24, its third win in row over Cougars, by 11-19-20. Zags won last 10 games in row; five of their seven WCC road wins are by double digits. BYU lost three of last five games; they're 5-2 at home in WCC, losing by point to St Mary's, 12 to USF. WCC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 2-7 vs spread. Zags playing for #1 seed in tourney now.
-- Rider (+2.5) shot 53% inside arc, beat Niagara 72-69 (+2.5) Feb 7, 6th win in last seven series games for Broncs, who won two of last three at Niagara, winning by 1-17 points. Rider won five of last six games, giving up 61.3 ppg in last three; they're 4-3 on MAAC road, losing by 6-10-7. Niagara won 10 of last 13 games; six of its last eight games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. MAAC single digit home faves are 16-23.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, February 28

Thursday's Top 25 NCAAB Betting Notes

Ohio State Buckeyes at Northwestern Wildcats (+10, 122)

Ohio State has slipped to the fringe of the Big Ten race as it visits struggling Northwestern on Thursday. The No. 15 Buckeyes are in fifth place in the bunched-up conference, two games behind first-place Indiana with three games remaining. Ohio State is just 3-3 over its last six games and a visit to Indiana looms after playing the Wildcats. Northwestern has lost five straight games and seven of eight. The Wildcats averaged 41.7 points over their last three defeats.

Northwestern’s closest loss in the five-game skid came during a visit to Ohio State when it lost 69-59 on Feb. 14. Since then, the Wildcats have lost by 21 to Illinois, 28 to Wisconsin and 31 to Purdue last Saturday. The Buckeyes have won seven of the last eight meetings in Northwestern’s home building. Ohio State is 3-5 on the road this season with its most recent away win coming against lowly Nebraska on Feb. 2. The Buckeyes delivered an impressive 68-60 victory over Michigan State on Sunday.

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers (+2, 135)

Duke has a showdown with first-place Miami looming on Saturday, but first the No. 3 Blue Devils face a tough contest when they visit Virginia on Thursday. The Cavaliers have won 15 consecutive home games and sold-out John Paul Jones Arena figures to be rocking at the sight of Duke. The Blue Devils have won eight of their past nine games but are just 4-3 on the road. Virginia is tied for third in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The Cavaliers know their next victory will be No. 20 and would like it to come against Duke, the only ACC program Virginia hasn’t beaten in Tony Bennett’s four seasons as coach. “I’m really looking forward to the challenge,” senior point guard Jontel Evans said. “I know it’s going to be a battle.” Duke is bracing for the upcoming return of senior forward Ryan Kelly, who has missed the last 12 games with a foot injury. “I’ve been doing most of my running in the pool, but I feel really good about it and my foot’s feeling good,” Kelly said. “As this week progresses, I think I can become more and more a part of practice.”

Gonzaga Bulldogs at BYU Cougars (+6, 146)

Despite a slew of accomplishments over the past 15 years, Gonzaga has never been the top-ranked team in the nation. The second-ranked Bulldogs may have a chance to climb atop the rankings if they win at Brigham Young on Thursday and finish the regular season by beating Portland on Saturday. Top-ranked Indiana lost to Minnesota on Tuesday, setting the state for the Zags to claim the top spot with back-to-back solid victories.

Brigham Young badly needs an upset of Gonzaga to bolsters its resume in terms of a possible NCAA tournament berth. The Cougars notched an 83-73 home win over the Zags last season but were routed 83-63 when they visited Gonzaga earlier this season. BYU has lost three of five games, including a 64-57 loss to Saint Mary’s in its last West Coast Conference game on Feb. 21. Gonzaga coach Mark Few said it is an honor for the Bulldogs to be ranked second this late in the campaign. “The polls mean a lot more this time of year than they do in November and December, even January, so all of us are being judged on the true body of work,” Few said. “It’s definitely rewarding.”

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, February 28

Thursday's Road Tests
By Brian Edwards

Duke at Virginia

Duke (24-3 straight up, 15-12 against the spread) has won eight of its last nine games and appears to have an excellent shot at securing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils have won back-to-back contests since losing a nail-biter at Maryland on Feb. 16, including Sunday’s 89-68 win over Boston College as 16-point home favorites. Freshman guard Rasheed Sulaimon scored a game-high 27 points, burying 10-of-15 shots from the field.

Duke is in second place in the ACC standings with an 11-3 league record. The Blue Devils are two games back of Miami, which has to travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium this weekend.

Duke is still without senior power forward Ryan Kelly, who averages 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Kelly has been out with a foot injury since mid-January, but he could return as early as next weekend.

Duke is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings, compiling an 8-2 record against RPI Top 50 opponents. The Blue Devils are 12-3 against RPI Top 100 foes.

Virginia (19-8 SU, 16-7-1 ATS) is tied with San Francisco for the best ATS ledger in America. The Cavaliers have been an especially lucrative team to support at home, where they have cashed tickets at an incredible 12-1-1 clip while winning outright in all 16 games.

Following back-to-back road losses at North Carolina and at Miami, UVA destroyed Ga. Tech by an 82-54 count Sunday as a 10-point home ‘chalk.’ Akil Mitchell led the way with 18 points and eight rebounds.

Virginia is fourth in the nation in scoring defense, giving up only 54.0 PPG.

UVA is No. 69 in the RPI Rankings despite going 6-2 against RPI Top 100 opponents. The Cavs have a great road win at Wisconsin on their resume.

The ‘over’ is on an 8-2 run for UVA in its last 10 games. The Cavs have seen the ‘over’ go 10-6 overall, 5-2 in their home games.

The ‘over’ is 14-12 overall for Duke, 4-3 in its seven true road assignments.

ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

Gonzaga at Brigham Young

Gonzaga (27-2 SU, 15-11-1 ATS) has won 10 in a row and hasn’t tasted defeat since getting beaten at the buzzer at Butler on Jan. 19. The Bulldogs have covered the number in three of their last four games, including an 81-50 home win Saturday over San Diego as 22.5-point home favorites. Kevin Pangos scored a game-high 18 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the floor. Pangos knocked down 3-of-5 from 3-point land.

Gonzaga is 10th in the RPI Rankings with a 5-2 record against the RPI 50 and a 10-2 ledger against the RPI Top 100. The only other loss for the ‘Zags besides at Butler came at home against Illinois (RPI: 32) back on Dec. 8.

Mark Few’s team doesn’t have many weaknesses. There’s senior forward Elias Harris, who averages 14.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game while shooting 50.4 percent from the field. There’s also an All-American candidate in junior seven-footer Kelly Olynyk, who averages 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per contest while making 66 percent of his shot from the floor. The Bulldogs also have one of the nation’s best 3-point shooter in Kevin Pangos, who scores 12.0 PPG, has a 96/40 assists-to-turnovers ratio and knocks down 81.7 percent of his attempts from the free-throw line.

BYU (20-9 SU, 13-15 ATS) is most likely looking at an NIT berth if it doesn’t win the WCC Tournament. Maybe, just maybe, the Cougars will be in the at-large conversation if they win out with the exception of the WCC Tournament finals. They undoubtedly have to win Thursday against Gonzaga, especially after missing out on a quality win at Saint Mary’s last Thursday. The Gaels captured a 64-57 win but failed to cover the number as 8.5-point home favorites. The Cougars had a great chance to win outright but when trailing by two at crunch time, Matt Carlino missed back-to-back free throws and then committed a terrible foul against Matthew Dellavedova 80 feet from the basket. Brandon Davies kept BYU in the game by tallying 25 points, nine rebounds and four assists.

BYU is 60th in the RPI Rankings. The Cougars are 0-4 against the RPI Top 50, including a home loss at the buzzer to Saint Mary’s on a wild shot by Dellavedova. They are 2-7 against the RPI Top 100 with their best wins coming in a season sweep of Santa Clara.

Dave Rose’s team has won 15 of its 17 home games and owns a 9-7 spread record. This is the Cougars’ first time being listed as home underdogs this season.

BYU is led by an outstanding inside-outside of senior center Brandon Davies and sophomore guard Tyler Haws. Davies averages 18.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, while Haws averages a team-high 20.9 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 12-8 overall for BYU, 6-4 in its 10 home games with a total.

The ‘under’ is 11-1 in Gonzaga’s last 12 games. The ‘under’ is 16-8 overall for the Bulldogs, 7-3 9 their 10 true road assignments.

When these schools met Jan. 24 in Spokane, Gonzaga captured an 83-63 win as a 10-point home favorite. The 146 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 148-point total. Olynyk enjoyed a monster game against the Cougars, finishing with 26 points, nine rebounds and five assists. Harris was also spectacular, producing 25 points, 10 rebound and two blocked shots. The Bulldogs’ defense forced Haws into his worst performance of the year. Haws was held to a season-low one point as he missed all nine of his shots from the field. Davies was also held in check with only 14 points on 5-of-13 shooting.

Tip-off is slated for 11:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

The home underdogs were barking in serious fashion Tuesday night. Minnesota beat Indiana outright as a 4.5-point home underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-180 payout (risk $100 to win $180). Memphis faced a Xavier team that was without starting guard Dee Davis and still came up on the short end of a 64-62 decision as a 4.5-point road favorite. The Musketeers were also around +170, +180 on the money line. Tennessee beat a short-handed Florida squad as an eight-point home ‘dog, as money-line supporters scored a generous plus-320 return (paid $320 on $100 wagers).

Billy Donovan is hoping to get Will Yeguete (knee) and Michael Frazier II (concussion) back for Saturday’s game against Alabama. The status of Casey Prather is uncertain after he suffered a bad cut on his forehead against the Vols. If Prather sustained a concussion, he could miss an extended period of time because it would be his third of the season.

The ‘over’ easily hit in Iowa State’s second heartbreaking overtime loss of the season to Kansas on Monday. The Cyclones have now seen the ‘over cash at an NCAA-best 16-3 overall clip.

The ‘under’ improved to 17-5 overall in Alabama games following its 61-43 home win over Auburn on Tuesday. The 102 combined points fell way ‘under’ the 120.5-point total. With the win and Florida’s loss at UT, the Crimson Tide and Kentucky both pulled to within one game of the Gators for the SEC lead. Nevertheless, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi still had Alabama among his ‘first four teams out’ of the NCAA field as of late Tuesday night.

The ‘under’ is an NCAA-best 17-4 in Cincinnati games.

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Games to Watch
By David Schwab

No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. BYU Cougars

The Bulldogs continue to make a strong push for a possible No.1 seed in the NCAA Tournament behind a 10-game winning streak that has them 27-2 SU on the year. They have a two-game lead over St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference as a result of a perfect 14-0 record in conference play. Gonzaga is 15-11-1 ATS this season and the total has stayed UNDER in 11 of its last 12 games. It is averaging 78.6 points a game while holding opponents to just 60.2 points. Kelly Olynyk has led the way with 17.7 points a game while shooting an incredible 66 percent from the floor.

BYU is in third place in the WCC with a record of 9-5. It has lost three of its last four games including a 64-57 setback against St. Mary's last Thursday as an 8½-point road underdog. Overall, the Cougars are 20-9 SU and 13-15 ATS after failing to cover in six of their last nine games. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games after going OVER in their previous four outings. Tyler Haws and Brandon Davies have combined for 38.9 points, 12.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists a game this season.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, February 28

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes 

Oregon St. at Oregon

The Oregon Ducks avenged a road loss to Stanford this past week knocking off Cardinals 77-66 in Eugene covering as 5 point favorites. Ducks are now 22-6 (11-15 ATS), 11-4 (5-10 ATS) in the Pac-12. Beavers nipped 60-59 by Cal last time out continue to struggle in the conference. Beavers head to Eugene 13-15 (13-11 ATS) on the campaign, 3-12 (9-6 ATS) in the Pac 12. Oregon winning/covering the earlier matchup have won/covered 4-of-5 meetings and have a 9-2 (5-6 ATS) stretch hosting Oregon State. Beavers aren't likely to dam up the Ducks on their own pond but they could stop the flow enough to grab the cash as Beavers are 9-4 ATS last thirteen vs the Pac-12 including 4-2 last six away and Ducks are just 2-8 ATS last ten vs the conference.

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Thursday Cliff Notes
By Dave Essler

Duke at UVA: Opening this game up at a PK is simply begging for people to take Duke, and perhaps the biggest reason is the situation. Duke's got their rematch with Miami back home on Saturday. One might think they'll be looking ahead, and clearly to some extent they are. However, they're also playing for a number one seed, so perhaps not as much as one might expect. Still doesn't mean I'd endorse UVA. It's obviously their GOY and they haven't lost at home this season, except for way back when against Delaware. We know UVA will slow it down. Duke does have the #1 rated three point defense in the Conference, but they can be beaten inside if UVA has the patience. They do. I simply really have a hard time taking road teams this time of year. That total sitting at 129 might normally be an auto-under in a UVA game, but with the way they've been scoring, it's tempting to think it goes over.

Gonzaga at BYU: Another team playing for a potential number one seed, and on the road. Gonzaga has the Conference regular season wrapped up, and BYU cannot really gain Conference Tournament seeding one way or the other. They lost by 20 at Gonzaga earlier, and except for a blip against the Dons have won all their home games this season. This is their last home game, and we will pay a premium for taking Gonzaga, so I'd have to say BYU or forget about it, because I simply cannot lay 6 or more points on the road against a team that knows it's opponent so well. BYU will simply try to run them out of the gym. Although they don't turn it over, they're simply going to have to hit their shots because they're not a great rebounding team. Since Gonzaga is so experienced, I would expect them NOT to get drawn into a track meet, and think that perhaps that total is too high. Yeah, they could score 160, but I don't think they will.

North Carolina at Clemson: Another road favorite that's lost a fair bit of value overnight, it seems. The game means everything to the Tar Heels because they're a bit of a bubble team, and also need to win to stay in at least fourth in the ACC for seeding purposes. Semi-tough spot here because they play FSU on Saturday. Not that the 'Noles are a worthy opponent, but there is some recent history. They beat FSU in Tallahassee earlier this season, which was double pay-back for FSU not only beating them in the ACC Tournament last season, but for beating them by 33 at home last year. So, I can indeed see this young 'Heels team not as focused as perhaps they should be. Tigers can be tough at home, but what I really don't like about UNC is they simply don't get to the FT line often enough (that WILL matter for MANY teams in the Tournament) and even when they do, they're well below average in FT %. Obviously Clemson will slow (or try) it down, while UNC will wanna run. Have to think this is nothing but a close game, one way or the other, and if I'd have been able to take or release the +4 last night, I probably would have. Now, it's a wait and see, although at +3 it still has some value, IMO. Highly doubt they go over the total. If they do, Clemson might be in trouble, so Clemson-under or UNC over. Lean to the former.

Detroit at Temple: Perhaps one of the more interesting games. Temple can ill-afford to lose this game, as they are currently one of the "last four in", while Detroit's only realistic hope is to win the Horizon League Championship, probably by beating Valpo. Thankfully for them there's no Butler, but the point to THIS game is that it means much more to Temple. That CAN be a bad thing since we know Detroit has some talent (seriously under achieved again) and can play relatively relaxed. Both teams are uber-experienced, and the Owls defense isn't the one we've come to expect. Since they both do an excellent job of not turning the ball over, and shoot free throws well, I'd lean to the over here. Neither team is a great rebounding team and both teams will run given the chance. And of course with the magnitude of this game and the potential for style point for the Owls, if they do get ahead they won't let up by their own accord. But, of course I don't see a total posted. Pussies. I can't take Detroit here. Although these teams don't play each other, I trust Fran Dunphy more than I trust Ray McCallum to have their respective teams ready, and Detroit's defense is not backable on the road. Perhaps using Temple ML in a parlay.

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College Basketball Point Spreads and Picks – Will Virginia catch Duke looking ahead?
By: The Linemakers

It’s the type of situation sharp handicappers look out for throughout the college basketball season: a high-profile team going on the road just days before playing arguably their most meaningful game of conference play.

That’s exactly the situation Duke faces tonight, when the Blue Devils travel to scrappy, disciplined Virginia (9 p.m. ET, ESPN). Duke hosts first-place Miami on Saturday.

Oddsmakers, well aware of the look-ahead potential, opened Duke (24-4, 14-13 ATS) as a tiny favorite Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, the Cavaliers were 1-point favorites at some shops.

Defensive-minded Virginia (19-8-1, 16-8-1 ATS) sits squarely on the bubble and will certainly be fired up in front of its home crowd. The Cavaliers are 15-1 SU and 12-2-1 ATS at home this season.

Tony Bennett’s Cavs lead the ACC and are fourth in the nation in scoring defense (54.00 points). Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils are No. 1 in the ACC and eighth in scoring offense (78.9 points).

As coach of Virginia, Bennett is 0-5 straight-up and 2-3 against the spread vs. Coach K.

This is the first meeting between the two teams this season.

The line: The game opened anywhere from Duke -1 to Virginia -1, with a few shops offering it as pick ’em. If Duke ends up getting points, it will be the first time the Devils have been an underdog this season. They are 11-8-1 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs.

Virginia has been a double-digit dog to Duke in the last six meetings between the teams.

The total was sitting at 129 at William Hill as of Thursday morning. Duke is averaging 78.9 and allowing 64.9 points per game. Virginia is averaging 65.0 and allowing 54.0 points per game.

The Linemakers’ lean: With a date vs. Miami coming up on Saturday, we’ve had our eyes on Virginia in this spot for a while. The Hurricanes blew out Duke in their first meeting of the season, so the Blue Devils must be looking ahead to the weekend. Thursday night is an opportunity for a situational play against Duke. We’re backing the Cavs at home.

North Carolina (19-8 SU, 5-6 ATS) at Clemson (13-13 SU, 8-5 ATS)

The Linemakers’ lean: We’re all aware of the mediocrity of this North Carolina team, and they’ve been even less impressive on the road, where they’ve been dealt big losses by Indiana, Texas, Virginia, N.C. State and Miami. While Clemson is not of those teams’ calibers, the Tigers have played up to their competition at home, keeping games close against Miami and N.C. State. While this is a difficult spot for the Tar Heels, we’re inclined to sit this one out.

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