Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday January, 31

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Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount
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As bad as Loyola Marymount's record looks, with the exception of a 92-51 loss at BYU (Cougars were in a huge revenge spot), they've been competitive more often than not in West Coast Conference play. They went to St. Mary's and lost by 13 and their other four WCC losses were by single digits. Note that they also managed to slip in a home win over a quality Santa Clara squad. And go back even further and we saw the Lions at home catching +10 against Ole Miss only to lose by three. Over the last six meetings in the series, the highest pointspread was Gonzaga -16.5...in Spokane. In their last three trips to Los Angeles, the Zags were laying -10.5 (won by 4), -9 (won by 10), and -11.5 (lost outright). Another key factor is the prep time. LMU head coach Max Good admitted that star Anthony Ireland has been worn down of late. The Lions had a full week of rest and prepare for the league's top team coming into their gym. To me that's a positive situation and one where we can step in and take the huge home dog.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday January, 31

Brandon Lee

Mavericks +3

With this line it appears to me that oddsmakers don't expect Stephen Curry to play, which is a huge loss for Golden State. The Warriors could also be without a couple other key rotation players in Harrison Barnes and Carl Landry, who are both listed as questionable. Dallas has been playing much better of late, but they continue to fly under the radar due to their poor start. Without Curry I really like Dallas to win this game outright and if it becomes official that he is out, this will be a much stronger play than just a free pick. Take the Points!

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Jeff Alexander

Iowa -13.5

Off back-to-back losses on the road, Iowa will be ready to put it on Penn State in its return home. Iowa is 10-2 at home this season with its losses coming by narrow margins to Indiana and Michigan State. The Hawkeyes have owned the Nittany Lions at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, winning 9 straight there by an average of 14.6 points. Plus, Penn State is 0-8 in Big Ten play with these losses coming by an average of 14.5 points. Penn State is 0-8 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons after being held to 65 points or less in 3 straight games. It has lost by an average of 16.5 points in this spot. Iowa is 17-6 ATS in all home games since the start of last season and itis 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Lay the number.

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St. Louis at ColumbusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I’ve had some success so far this season betting Columbus games under the total.  This team has really struggled offensively since the departure of Rick Nash this past offseason.  Their offense just doesn’t seem to click and it is pretty apparent as they rank 27th in goals per game at 1.71.  Columbus’ power play has really struggled as well, ranking 26th at 11.8%.  Things don’t get any easier as they face one of the best defensive teams in the NHL in the St. Louis Blues tonight.  The Blues are holding their opponents to a staggering 19.5 shots per game!  The next closest team is Anaheim at 25.4 shots.  Needless to say, the Blue Jackets will have their work cut out for them tonight in order to find quality chances around the net.  Despite Columbus’ shortcomings on offense, I do project a competitive effort from them defensively.  Five of their seven games have been decided by one goal and with the 4th best penalty killing in the NHL the Blue Jackets should be able to keep St. Louis’ red hot power play (33.3%) in check. Look for a low scoring game here as we get plenty of value on the under 5 at +120.

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Montana at Portland StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Portland StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Vikings (5-12) have lost four games in a row entering this contest but all four of those games were on the road. Now Portland State returns home again where they enjoy a 5-2 record along with a +5.6 net point differential. The Vikings shoot a red hot 52.2% on their home court which includes an uncanny 53.4% clip from behind the arc. Their ability to nail shots from downtown which makes them very dangerous in this spot -- and they have covered he point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on their home court. Additionally, Portland State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games regarding meeting point spread expectations against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Montana (14-4) enters this game off a big 76-74 win versus Weber State in a crucial Big Sky match-up but now they go on the road for the first time in five contests. The Grizzlies look ripe for a letdown now in a hostile environment as they are only 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, Montana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Vikings. Take the points with Portland State in this one.

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Hawaii vs. UC RiversideFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: HawaiiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii is one of the more talented teams in the Big West. They took some time to build chemistry this year, but I believe the Warriors are now ready for a nice run. UC Riverside is terrible defensively, and they don't shoot the ball well at all. Hawaii beat UC Riverside by 15 at home a few weeks ago. While I expect this one to be closer, I think Hawaii takes care of business. Take Hawaii. **3-1 Tuesday and 9-6 yesterday! HUGE 9 play card ready for today. All in One Entire Card (9 Picks) is the BEST VALUE on the board! It includes my 100% Angle play, which is backed by an AMAZING 34-0 angle! Join in today!**

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday January, 31

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Butler vs. Saint Louis
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It does not surprise this bureau that St. Louis is 3-2 SU 2-3 ATS in A 10 play this season. That, despite the fact they were picked by many to win the League. The difference between now deceased former HC Majerus and current HC Crews is like night and day. Consider the Bilikens fortunes on the defensive end of the court where they allow a very middling 42% from the field 36% from the arc. A 58 PPG defense is simply a function of their preference for a slower pace. Crews has proven he is not ready to step up to this level of competition. In his head coaching career he is 24-45 ATS vs. winning teams. To the surprise of few, Butler has adapted well to playing in an upgraded conference. In moving from the 12th ranked Horizon League to the 8th ranked A 10, they are performing admirably. They enter tonight on a run of 14-1 SU and 6-0 ATS. They covered all 4 games without leading scorer Clark losing only to LaSalle by a single point. Following the meager 22 wins of last season, 6th year HC Stevens now has his Bulldogs primed for another post-season run. Note that Stevens has been outstanding in this role going 29-14 ATS as underdog including 8-1 ATS this season (only loss to Illinois). Yet there’s full motivation for this contest with the realization that no fewer than 7 teams are in the thick of the A 10 race with 2 losses. The better team gets the win

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Dallas vs. Golden State
Play: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams both average over 100 points per game and don't play that much defense as Golden State is allowing nearly 100 points and Dallas is allowing 103 points per game. Over the last three games Golden State is averaging 108 points per game. Dallas is averaging a shade under 108 points per game over their previous three. Look for a shoot out with both teams scoring in the mid 100s.

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Arizona vs. WashingtonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In their last games Arizona beat USC 74-50 while Washington lost to Oregon 81-76. Arizona is in 2nd place in Pac 12 play and they have won 4 of their last 6 games. The Huskies have beaten the Wildcats in 3 straight meetings and they have taken 5 straight at home where they are averaging 80.6. The Huskies struggled on defense in their last game losing to a ranked Oregon team, leading scorer C.J. Wilcox had 14 points and Andrew Andrews chipped in with 15 points. Washington has a balanced offensive attack with 4 players averaging in double figures and they will move the rock well tonight. Arizona leading scorer Mark Lyons (14.9 ppg) had been playing great before struggling in his last game, but he has help with the other Wildcats of Solomon Hill and Nick Johnson averaging in double figures. All 3 of these guys are shooting at least 35% from beyond the 3-point arc. Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Washington has lost 3 straight, but they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games facing Arizona. Expect the Huskies to play better D, they will cover the spread in their house.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday January, 31

Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Eastern Kentucky vs. Tennessee-Martin
Play: Tennessee-MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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As you know I love to fade teams that shoot a lot of threes when they go on the road. Traditionally it is hard to find your range in an environment you are not used to and when you rely so much on your perimeter game because you lose the rebound margin as well as the FTA game then you are an automatic fade on the road. Eastern Kentucky shoots 45% of their shots from three and on the road they shoot just 35.6% which is not bad, but they are also -10.8 rebound margin while TN Martin +3.6 at home. To go along with that they are also -7.5 FTA on the road so expect Martin to be in this game because they should dominate the glass and get to the FT line more and I expect Eastern Kentucky to struggle a bit from the perimeter.

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Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Butler vs. Saint LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Saint LouisFOR  FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Saint Louis head coach Rick Majerus stepped down (was forced out?) in late August with Jim Crews (was head coach at Evansville for 17 years) taking over on an interim basis (Marjerus would pass away in December). The Billikens won 26 games last year (one in the NCAAs) and while leading scorer Conklin (13.9-4.6) graduated, the rest of LY’s nucleus returned. However, guard Kwamain Mitchell (12.4 PPG last season) opened the season on the shelf with a foot injury. Mitchell returned on Dec 28 and has averaged 9.8 PPG and 3.9 APG. He scored 29 points vs Rhode Island on Jan 29 but that came after a three-point effort in his previous game. Since the RI effort, he’s followed with games of 11 and three points. Mitchell just hasn’t been the same but he starts along with McCall (10.8), small forwards Evans (10.7-6.6) and Glaze (3.4-3.4) plus the 6-11 Loe (7.0-3.1). Two bench players make big contributions, the 6-8 Ellis (11.2-3.7), who leads the team in scoring, plus guard Jett (8.7-3.7 APG). St Louis comes in 14-5 (3-2 in the A-10), as they host No. 9 Butler (17-3 / 4-1). Brad Stevens is in his sixth season at Butler (1st as a member of the A-10). His first five seasons have been quite special, going 140-40 overall (89-15 his 1st three) with back-to-back NCAA championship game appearances in 2010 and 2011. Butler’s NCAA run ended last season with a CBI appearance but all-in-all, it wasn’t a bad season for Bulldogs (22-15, after a poor start). Expectations were high this season with the return of the 6-10 Andrew Smith plus two talented frontcourt players, the 6-6 Marshall and the 6-4 Jones. Stigall was a returning senior at guard plus two newcomers had HUGE expectations. First, there was Arkansas transfer Rotnei Clarke (12.2, 15.1 & 15.2 in his three years at Arkansas) and 6-5 freshman guard Kellen Dunham. The two newcomers have delivered. Clarke (16.7) is the team’s leading scorer and after missing three games after severely spraining his neck when he crashed into a padded basket support at Dayton on Jan 12, he returned in Butler’s last game vs Temple. He was just 4-of-14 from the floor but went 13-of-14 on FTs to score 24 in the 83-71 win. Dunham has averaged 11.3 PPG plus returning players Smith (11.7-5.4), Marshall (10.5-5.2) and Jones (10.4-5.5) round out the starting lineup. Stigall (1.9-1.6) has become an afterthought TY (averaged 5.2 PPG last season) while forwards Fromm (3.8-2.9) and Woods (3.6-4.2) plus guard Barlow (2.5-2.8) represent the key reserves. It’s hard to argue strongly against Butler but let’s NOT forget that St Louis is 11-2 SU at home, including an impressive 60-46 win over now-No. 20 New Mexico, 60-46. St Louis ranks 16th in the nation in scoring defense (57.8 PPG) and will give Butler all it can handle in this one. This is one game in which I expect the Bulldogs to struggle and I’ll lay the small spot!

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Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Butler vs. Saint Louis
Pick: ButlerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I’m just not buying into the concept of Butler as an underdog.  Brad Stevens squad was an underdog at the Maui Invitational against Marquette.  They won straight up.  The Bulldogs were underdogs against North Carolina the next day.  They won straight up by double digits.  Butler was an underdog against Indiana, ranked #1 at the time.  They won straight up.
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The Bulldogs were underdogs at St Joe and Dayton to open up Atlantic-10 conference play.  They won those games in SU fashion too.  They were underdogs to Gonzaga and found a way to steal one from the Zags.  Yes, Butler did lose as an underdog at LaSalle last week, but they still covered the spread in a two point defeat.  Clearly, this team is exceeding marketplace expectations by a fairly wide margin.   
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St Louis is no joke – there’s a reason that Butler is a dog once again tonight.  They’re coming off a pair of impressive road wins at Duquesne and St Bonaventure last weekend after dropping back-2-back games against Temple and Rhode Island the previous week.  But point guard  and leading returning scorer Kwamain Mitchell still isn’t back to 100% after missing the first eleven games with a broken leg.
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And, unlike Butler, the Billikens haven’t been at their best in tight, competitive games; only 1-2 in games decided by five points or less.  That lone win came against North Texas in a game Jim Crews squad was favored by 13 points.  Butler’s repeated success in tight games gives them a legitimate confidence edge here that simply isn’t factored into this pointspread.  Take Butler.

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Drexel +5 over GEORGE MASONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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George Mason is the most recognizable program in the CAA Conference because of the success of the program that has seen them make the NCAA tournament six times and even advanced to the Final Four in 2006. They are usually overpriced as a result of that and we find a good example of it here. The Patriots are not what they've been in previous years. They're not going to the dance this season, they've already lost twice by double digits to conference leader Northeastern and they're a miserable offensive club. They have some other disturbing losses as well and come in with just a 12-8 overall record and 5-3 conference mark.
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The Dragons are just 4-4 in the conference and just 8-12 overall, which is somewhat misleading. They've had to endure some devastating early injuries but they're getting healthier now and they're also gaining steam. Despite the injuries, Drexel has been very competitive with three OT losses and three others by four points or less. They've now won three of its past four games with only loss over that span being by two points. They play solid defense (holding the opposition to just 62 a game) and they'll have the best pure scorer on the floor tonight in Damien Lee, who went off for 30 points in the last game. In a contest that figures to be close throughout, the five points being offered and the distinct possibility of winning outright makes these Dragons the clear choice here.

Pass NBA

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Dennis MacklinFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iona +2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a matchup of the two heavyweights in the MAAC with Iona winners of eight of their last none taking on Niagra a winner of six straight. These two met back on November 28th in New Rochelle with Iona (-8.5) taking down an 83-72 home win. Both teams shot the lights out in that game with the Gaels 12-26 from downtown and the Eagles shooting 52% from inside the arc for the game. In the end, at was Niagra's not being able to hit a foul shot (11-18) that was the difference. Iona has pretty much dominated the series winning five straight, for of those wins by 11 or more. Niagra has won four straight at the Gallagher Center but this is not a good matchup for the Eagles and the wrong team is probably favored. Grab the small points with the likely straight up winner Iona.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday January, 31

Bob Balfe

St. Louis -2.5

Butler is a very well coached basketball team. Brad Stevens is a great coach. The guy was born in 1976. Think about what he has accomplished already. With that being said this team does not have the talent that we remember from the tournament year runs. St. Louis is a tricky gym to play in. This game is going to go down to the wire and I really like the home team here. Butler has dodged a few bullets this year already. Tonight they should be on the losing end. Take St. Louis.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday January, 31

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Memphis/ Oklahoma City Under 190.5: Memphis plays at a very slow pace and they also play great defense, ranking 1st in points allowed (89.5 ppg) and 7th in defensive FG% (43.6%), while on the road they have allowed just 92.7 ppg. Granted they will be going up against a high powered attack of the Thunder, but Oklahoma City is coming off a long 6 game road trip so they may not be all that sharp in this one. The Thunder also struggled on defense on the road and I look for them to really clamp down on that end and it has been made easier, by the fact that Memphis averages just 94.6 ppg on the road and will also be trying to work new pieces into their offense.  Both teams will be playing very tough at the defensive end and that should keep this game in the 180’s.

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Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

BYU -11.5 over PEPPERDINE: The Cougars have owned this series winning the last 6 between the 2 teams and by an average of 23.3 ppg. They beat Pepperdine by 25 points at home earlier in the year and have won each of the last 6 in the series y at least 13 points. The Waves come in struggling as they have won just 1 of their last 5 games and that includes back-to-back home losses to Santa Clara and San Diego. The Cougars have two conference losses, but St Mary's and Gonzaga are head and shoulders better than what BYU will face tonight. The Cougars have won their last 4 conference games by at least 18 pints each and I expect another such victory by them in this one.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

MICHIGAN STATE -8 over Illinois: The Illini Got off to a great start this year, but have since gone 3 and 6 overall and are just 2-5 in the Big 10. The are just 1-4 in their last 5 games overall and all 4 losses have been by double digits, including a 14 point home loss to Northwestern and a 17 point home loss to Minnesota, plus a 23 point road loss at Wisconsin. A big problem for Illinois of late is the fact that they rely too much on the 3-ball and they have shot just 19.8% from long range in their last 5 games. Their long range shooting woes should continue here vs a Michigan State squad that allows teams to shoot just 28.4% from long range at home. Overall the Spartan have allowed just 54.2 ppg on their home floor, outscoring teams by 17.2 ppg in the process. The Spartans are in much better shape both offensively and defensively than Illinois right now, they are at home and have revenge on their minds, so i see the Spartans having no problems giving Illinois another double digit loss tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Michigan State is 17-2-1 from game 20 on out if they are playing with revenge on 3 days or more rest vs an .800 or less opponent. 


Arkansas/ Alabama Under 133: Alabama is a team that likes to slow the game down, especially at home., where their games have averaged just 120.5 ppg. not one of their last 6 home games have put more than 133 points on the board and their 3 conference home games have averaged just 115.3 ppg. Alabama is a very good defensive squad as they have allowed just 57.4 ppg on 40.4% shooting on their home floor. Yes the Hogs have averaged 78.3 ppg on the year, but just 59 ppg on 40% shooting in their 3 SEC road games this year. Not likely to get much better vs the Bama defense tonight. Arkansas has allowed 75 ppg on the road, but Alabama won't really take advantage as they have averaged just 63.1 ppg on 42.6% shooting on their home floor this year. Neither team shoots the 3-ball all that god and both are under 70% from the charity stripe. Bama likes their games in the 120's and that's just were this one will land.


Denver/ Texas San Antonio Over 120: The other day I had an ovre play in a Denver game vs New Mexico State, but the 3rd ranked in the nation 3-pt shooting team, just could hit a 3 and the game finished way Under the total. I don't expect them to have such a poor shooting night in this one. Tonight this offense will face a Tx-San Antonio squad that allows teams to put up 73.2 ppg and shoot 40.7% from long range on their home floor. In the first meeting between these teams  , Denver put up 75 points and shot 46.7%  (14-30) from long range. I expect them to have a similar night tonight. The Roadrunners did score just 50 points in that first meeting, but that was on the road and now they are at home, where they average 69.5 ppg. They should be good for at least the high 50's in this one. Roadrunner home games have averaged 142.7 ppg, while their last 5 overall have put up 148.8 ppg. This one clearly has a chance to hit the 130's.

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